首页|东南亚国家建制力量走强的态势分析——以柬埔寨、印尼、新加坡和泰国为例

东南亚国家建制力量走强的态势分析——以柬埔寨、印尼、新加坡和泰国为例

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近年来,以柬埔寨、印尼、新加坡和泰国为代表的东南亚国家的建制力量通过平稳推进代际交接、灵活分化反建制力量、制定和实施长期发展战略,不断增强自身实力和凝聚力,在本国政坛上走强并对反建制力量保持优势地位.究其原因,东南亚各国稳定压倒变革的主流民意为建制力量巩固执政提供了社会支撑,延续压倒轮替的政治传统大大提升了建制力量执政的合法性,灵活压倒板滞的策略选择为其巩固执政扫清了障碍.但也应看到,建制力量的走强面临诸多挑战,日益严重的政治腐败问题不断侵蚀着建制力量根基,各国青年群体壮大支撑起反建制力量的快速崛起,疫后经济复苏不如预期考验建制力量的执政能力.建制力量走强增加了各国内外政策的确定性,可助推区域合作,并夯实东盟长期坚持的战略自主路线.
An Analysis on the Strengthening Pro-Establishment in Southeast Asian Countries:Cases of Cambodia,Indonesia,Singapore and Thailand
In recent years,the pro-establishment forces in Southeast Asian countries,particularly like Cambodia,Indonesia,Singapore and Thailand,have continued to enhance their strength and cohesion through the smooth intergenerational transition,the flexible division of the anti-establishment forces,and the formulation and implementation of long-term development strategies.They thus have become stronger in the political arena of each country and have maintained a dominant position over the anti-establishment forces.The reasons for this are that the mainstream public opinion in the Southeast Asian countries,prefer-ring stability to change,provides social support for the consolidation of the pro-establishment forces.The continuation of the political tradition,rather than political alternation,greatly enhances the legitimacy of the pro-establishment forces.And,the pro-establishment forces'own pragmatic strategy,beyond the hard-line strategy,clears the obstacles to the consolidation of their forces.However,it should also be noted that the strengthening of the establishment forces is facing many challenges,including the growing problem of political corruption for eroding the legitimacy of the pro-establishment forces the rapid rise of anti-estab-lishment forces supported by the growth of youth groups in various countries and the weaker-than-expected post-pandemic economic recovery for testing the governing capacity of the pro-establishment forces.Over-all,the strengthening of the pro-establishment forces has increased the certainty of domestic and foreign policies,and has helped to promote regional cooperation and strengthen ASEAN's long-held strategic au-tonomy.

Southeast AsiaASEANpro-establishmentChina-ASEAN relations

刘畅

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中国国际问题研究院,北京 100005

东南亚 东盟 建制力量 中国—东盟关系

2024

太平洋学报
中国太平洋学会

太平洋学报

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.608
ISSN:1004-8049
年,卷(期):2024.32(5)