Predicting and early warning the natural-gas supply and demand in China based on grey theories
As a kind of low-carbon,clean and efficient energy,natural gas has become one of the main energy sources in China.However,its supply-demand contradiction is prominent.Therefore,it is of great significance to conduct supply-de-mand prediction and early earning for smooth achieving the"dual carbon"goal.From four aspects of supply,demand,mar-ket and society,ten early-warning indicators were selected to construct the supply-demand prediction and early-warning indicator system.And ten indicators include reserve-production ratio,self-sufficiency degree,reserve index,consumption proportion,consumption intensity,import dependence ratio,import concentration,guarantee coefficient,carbon intensity and per capita GDP.All these indicators were predicted from the GM(1,1)model.In addition,objectively and subjectively,both entropy and G1 methods were employed for determining the weight of each indicator,while grey correlation analysis method for the early warning.Results show that(ⅰ)there are four indicators affecting this supply and demand,reserve-pro-duction ratio,followed by self-sufficiency degree,reserve index and import concentration.And the security degree of the supply and demand shows a trend of stable increase;and(ⅱ)the natural-gas supply and demand is in the critical security state during the 14th Five-Year Plan,i.e.,at level III.And it will transit to the security state during the 15th Five-Year Plan and eventually achieve level IV.In conclusion,four active measures to ensure China's natural-gas security have been made,such as continuously promoting action plans of oil and gas reserve and production increase,constructing diversified natural-gas import systems,accelerating the construction of natural-gas storage mechanisms and speeding up both develop-ment and utilization of new energies.
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