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"双碳"目标下油气资源安全与油气地质调查方向

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能源不仅是全球经济发展的物质基础,同时也成为全球CO2减排过程中无法规避的重要领域.为了统筹推进"双碳"目标下油气资源安全和油气地质调查,采用供需平衡分析法,对中国油气资源的供应现状进行了调研,进而针对中国油气资源安全所面临的问题提出了策略及建议.研究结果表明:①预测到2030年中国石油消费量达峰供需缺口约为5.75×108 t,到2050年中国石油供需缺口大约为0.95×108 t,到2060年供需缺口大约为0.25×108 t;②预测到2030年中国天然气供需缺口大约为3 000×108 m3,到2040年天然气达峰供需缺口大约为3 500×108 m3,到2060年供需缺口大约为1 000×108 m3;③中国油气资源安全面临高对外依存度、消费总量高、消费结构不合理、石油天然气的杠杆和战略支点作用不容忽视等4大挑战;④坚持油气地质调查工作的定位、优化油气地质调查的部署思路、调整油气地质调查的重点目标任务、优化油气地质调查考核制度等4条措施,有助于提高中国油气地质调查工作的效率.
Hydrocarbon resources:Security and geological survey to look ahead under the dual-carbon goal
Energy is not only material base in the development of world economy but an important and inevitable compo-nent in global CO2 emission reduction.So,by means of the supply-demand balance analysis,the current supply situation was investigated for China's oil and gas resources in order to promote both resource security and geological survey under the carbon-peak and carbon-neutrality goal(dual-carbon goal).Moreover,some strategies and suggestions were made to address security challenges.Results show that(i)for domestic oil,the predicted consumption will reach the peak in 2030,and the supply-demand gap will be about 5.75×108 t in 2030,0.95×108 t in 2050,and 0.25×108 t in 2060;(ii)for natural gas,the predicted consumption will peak around 2040,and its supply-demand gap will be about 3000×108 m3 in 2030,3500×108 m3 in 2040,and 1000×108 m3 in 2060;(iii)for hydrocarbon resources in China,the security is faced with four challenges,i.e.high external dependence,large consumption,improper consumption patterns,and an intolerant role of oil and gas as leverage and strategic points;and(iv)four measures made for the geological survey,containing adhering to the position,optimizing the deployment idea,balancing the decisive targets and tasks,and optimizing the assessment system,are conducive to raising survey efficiency.

Dual-carbon goalSupply-demand relationHydrocarbon resource securityGeological survey directionNatu-ral gas

陈骥、曹倩、闫兵、张艺、谢雯洁

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中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京 100037

中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京 100083

首都师范大学,北京 100089

北京兴业恒盛投资管理有限公司,北京 102600

中国石油西南油气田公司新能源事业部,四川 成都 610051

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"双碳"目标 供需关系 油气资源安全 油气地质调查方向 天然气

中国地质调查局地调项目中国地质调查局地调项目

DD20240099DD20243304

2024

天然气技术与经济
中国石油西南油气田公司

天然气技术与经济

影响因子:0.459
ISSN:2095-1132
年,卷(期):2024.18(4)