Methods for predicting the consumption demand on natural-gas resources
In order to help PipeChina smoothly implement the"Five Optimizations and One Innovation"(including normal-ized design,intensive procurement,mechanized construction,digitized delivery,intelligent operation and innovative leader-ship),both principal framework and practices were studied for advanced technologies to predict the consumption demand on natural-gas resources in the recent decade by means of literature survey.Results show that(i)at present,the commonly used prediction methods mainly include four kinds of prediction,like empiricism,market investigation,time series,correla-tion,and combination model;(ii)these methods are available for different project background due to their difference in run-ning mechanisms and data source;and(iii)both empirical and market investigation prediction methods are more suitable for judging rough development trend,while both time series and correlation prediction ones can better reveal coupling laws among model elements.And combination model is able to meet the need of multi-scenario prediction.In conclusion,pre-diction models have their own advantages and disadvantages,and the combination model is conducive to capturing further input information,reducing prediction errors caused by single modeling,and further improving fitting superiority under the guidance of digital technologies,so as to provide additional reference with rational decision-making and optimal planning.
Natural gasResource marketConsumption demandPrediction methodBenchmarking analysisCombination model
万方数据
维普
