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中国快速城镇化的边际环境污染效应变化实证分析

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通过建立模型并实际测算城镇化每增长1个百分点引起的污染物产排放变化量,来分析我国城镇化发展的边际环境污染效应.结果显示,我国城镇化发展与环境污染之间的矛盾仍十分突出,1996 - 2009年期间,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的城镇生活污水排放量、COD产生量、NH3-N产生量、NOx排放量、CO2排放量、城镇生活垃圾产生量仍呈上升趋势.由于近年来城镇污水处理率明显提升,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的COD和NH3 -N排放量由“十五”的增加逐步转为“十一五”的减少;由于城镇生活用煤的减少,城镇化每增长1个百分点带来的SO2排放量在“十五”“十一五”期间都呈减少趋势.为减少环境污染,我国应选择有中国特色的城镇化发展道路,合理把握城镇化发展速度和节奏,促进城镇与环境协调发展.
Accounting model and demonstration for marginal environmental effects of the rapid urbanization in China
In order to analyze marginal environmental effects of China's rapid urbanization, a model was built to calculate the variation of contaminants caused by every one percentage-point increasing in the urbanization. The results show that the rapid urbanization has brought serious contradictions between its development and the environmental protection. From 1996 to 2009, urban waste-water discharges, COD, NH3-N and urban solid waste productions and NOX, CO2 emissions show positive relationships with every one percentage-point increasing in the urbanization. Due to the significant increase of the sludge treatment rate, COD and NH3-N emissions increasing with every one percentage-point increasing in the urbanization, which are positive during the period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, turn to negative through the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Besides, the less coal consumption results in decreased SO2 emissions with every one percentage-point increasing in the urbanization during the period of the Tenth and Eleventh Five-Year Plans. In conclusion, it is better for China to open up a path of Chinese characteristic urban development and hold rationally the speed and rhythm of the urban development to promote the harmony between the urban development and the environment.

urbanizationaccounting modelmarginal environmental effectsdemonstration

蒋洪强、张静、王金南、张伟、卢亚灵

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中国环境规划院环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室,北京100012

城镇化 测算模型 边际环境效应 实证分析

环保公益性行业科研专项经费国家自然科学基金

201046706670831005

2012

生态环境学报
广东省生态环境与土壤研究所 广东省土壤学会

生态环境学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.608
ISSN:1674-5906
年,卷(期):2012.21(2)
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