首页|北京城市热岛的定量监测及规划模拟研究

北京城市热岛的定量监测及规划模拟研究

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
为定量地评估北京城市热岛现状并预测未来北京城市热岛发展趋势，分别采用气温资料、遥感资料和城市规划资料进行了研究分析。对北京20个气象台站按照台站距离城市中心的距离划分为远郊、近郊和城市三类，分别计算三种类型站点经过海拔订正后的年平均气温，利用1971-2012年城市站和远郊站的年平均气温差值估算北京气温热岛的时间变化；利用1987-2012年的NOAA/AVHRR和Landsat-TM两种不同分辨率的卫星资料，采用定量化的指标--地表热岛强度和热岛比例指数分别估算了不同时期北京地区和城六区热岛强度和范围，并对北京平原地区的城市热岛状况进行了评估；利用2020年的北京城市规划土地利用资料，结合2008年的城市热岛现状监测结果对2020年的北京热岛状况进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明，北京城市的气温热岛与遥感监测地表热岛在时间变化趋势上具有一致性，不同分辨率卫星资料监测地表热岛在时空分布上也具有一致性。其中1971-2012年，以年平均气温计算的北京城市热岛强度增温率为0.33℃·(10 a)-1，近5年（2008-2012）平均热岛为1.12℃。遥感监测结果显示1987-2001年北京地区的热岛持续增强，2001年之后由于北京申奥的成功进行了大面积的旧城改造和绿化，使得城市热岛强度和范围在2004年和2008年有所降低，2008年之后城市热岛继续向东、南和北方向扩展，并出现了中心城区热岛与通州、顺义、大兴、昌平热岛连成片的趋势，到2012年城六区热岛面积百分比已从1990年的31%增加到77%。由热岛比例指数确定的北京各区县热岛强度排名前三分别是城区、海淀和丰台，延庆县最低。对2020年城市规划图热岛模拟结果显示北京热岛已由“摊大饼”演变为“中心+周边分散”模式，中心城区热岛强度和范围明显减弱，周边广大远郊区将出现分散型小热岛，城六区热岛面积将从2012年的77%降至为60%，显示北京未来通过城市规划改善城市热岛任务的艰巨性。
Quantitative Assessment and Planning Simulation of Beijing Urban Heat Island
In order to quantitatively evaluate the current situation of the urban heat island and forecast the trend of the heat island development for Beijing in future, air temperature data, remote sensing data and the city planning data are used to monitor and assess the current heat island and simulate the future heat island distribution in Beijing. Based on the distance between the central of Beijing urban and 20 different weather stations, the weather stations are divided into three distinct types such as the exurban, suburb and urban stations, which the annual mean air temperature is corrected by the sea level elevation, respectively. The temporal variation of the annual mean air temperature is estimated from the difference of average air temperature between urban stations and exurban stations for the period of 1971-2012. The intensity and spatial distribution of the heat island for Beijing and six-district regions is obtained using two indexes of the heat island intensity and heat island proportion from the two different spatial resolution satellite data. They are NOAA/AVHRR and Landsat-TM, respectively. The heat island of Beijing plain area is evaluated, too. Using the monitoring result of the urban heat island intensity in 2008, together with the land use types of city planning for 2020 in Beijing city, the heat island in 2020 is simulated. Results show that temporal change trends of the urban heat island obtained from the observations of weather stations and remote sensing have a good agreement. The difference of the temporal and spatial distribution of the heat island from different satellite data is small. For example, the warming rate of the city heat island intensity is 0.33 ℃·(10 a)-1 with the mean of 1.12 ℃ in recent five years(2008-2012) calculated from the annual mean air temperature. Observed results from the remote sensing show that heat island intensity has consistently enhanced for the period of 1987-2001. However, after 2001, the intensity and area range of the heat island is reduced for 2004 and 2008 owing to the successful Olympic bid, large-scale old city reconstructions and greening measures implemented. After 2008, the heat island spatially expands except the direction of west and the blending of Tongzhou, Shunyi, Changping and Daxing district with the central city tends to be obvious. Percent of the heat island area in six-district regions rises from 31%in 1990 to 77%in 2012. Based on the heat island intensity scores, the top three of the heat island intensity is Chengqu, Haidian and Fengtai, respectively and Yanqing is the least influenced by the heat island. The simulation results of the urban heat island for 2020 show that the pattern of the Beijing heat island will be changed from the urban center-sprawl to center-periphery. The intensity and scope of heat island in six-district regions will be obviously decreased but the small distributed heat island will be more around the exurban. The area of the heat island in the six-district regions will decrease from 77%in 2012 to 60%in 2020, which shows the difficult and complexity of reducing the urban heat island only based on the city planning for Beijing.

heat island of air temperatureland surface heat island intensityheat island proportion indexcity planningheat island simulationBeijing

刘勇洪、徐永明、马京津、权维俊

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北京市气候中心，北京 100089

南京信息工程大学遥感学院，江苏 南京 210044

北京市观象台，北京 100176

中国气象局京津冀环境气象预报预警中心，北京 100089

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气温热岛 地表热岛强度 热岛比例指数 城市规划 热岛模拟 北京

国家自然科学基金中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室开放基金北京市气象局“城市边界层观测分析与精细模式”创新团队

41175015LPCC201209

2014

生态环境学报
广东省生态环境与土壤研究所 广东省土壤学会

生态环境学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.608
ISSN：1674-5906
年,卷(期)：2014.(7)
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