首页|基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析

基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析

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辽宁省是干旱较为严重的地区之一,研究该地区干旱的时空分布特征,对有效应对旱灾,采取防御措施,降低旱灾的危害有着积极的意义。利用该区域52个气象站1961─2014年逐月降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)、经验正交函数(EOF)以及旋转经验正交函数(REOF)等方法,分析了近54年来辽宁省干旱时空变化分布特征及分区研究。研究结果表明:辽宁省干旱主要发生在19世纪60年代至70年代初、70年代末至80年代初、80年代末至90年代初和21世纪初。春季干旱和秋季干旱发生的范围较大,持续时间较长,年份较多,冬季干旱发生范围次之,夏季干旱发生的范围较小,年份也较少。根据 REOF 分解的结果,可以将辽宁省干旱划分为西北部地区、中部和东北部地区、东南部地区。划分的各个区域中,参考各区域SPI12的平均值可知,3个地区的平均SPI12曲线变化趋势基本一致,但也存在差异性。最明显的差异是西北地区与东南地区的差异,出现干旱的年份数量各地区大致相等。从干旱的时段来看,东南部地区、中部和东北部地区各有1次较长时段的干旱,西北部地区有2次较长时段的干旱,而且相对另外两个区域干旱级别达到中旱以上的时段较少。
Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Droughts Based on Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) in Liaoning Province in Recent 54 a
Liaoning province is one of the severe drought areas. The study of the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of drought in the region has positive significance to effectively response to drought, to take defensive measures and to reduce the harm of drought. This research analyzed nearly 54 years drought spatial-temporal characteristics distribution in Liaoning Province on the basis of the precipitation data of 52 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 by using standardized precipitation index (SPI), empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF). The results showed that the drought mainly occurred in the 1960s to the beginning of 1970 s, in the late 1970 s to early 1980 s, in the late 1980 s to early 1990 s and at early 21st century in Liaoning Province. Spring drought and autumn drought had the largest range, the longest duration time, and the most number of years, the range of winter drought happened less, and summer drought had the smallest range, and the least number of years. According to the result of REOF, the drought area in Liaoning Province can be divided into the northwest area, the central and northeast area, and the southeast area. Referring to the mean SPI12 of the divided areas, the results showed that the variation tendency of the mean SPI12 of the three areas was mainly the same, but there were also differences. The most obvious difference was the difference between the northwest area and the southeast area. The number of years of drought in the three areas was mainly the same. And for the drought period, both the southeast area and the central and northeast area had a long drought period each, the northwest area had two long drought periods, and the number of drought period in this area that reached middle drought or higher was the least compared to other two areas.

droughtStandardized Precipitation Index(SPI)Empirical Orthogonal FunctionRotated Empirical Orthogonal Function

高西宁、徐庆喆、丛俊霞、徐亚琪

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沈阳农业大学农学院,辽宁沈阳 110866

盖州市气象局,辽宁营口 115200

干旱 标准化降水指数(SPI) 经验正交函数(EOF) 旋转经验正交函数(REOF)

国家自然科学基金

31200432

2015

生态环境学报
广东省生态环境与土壤研究所 广东省土壤学会

生态环境学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.608
ISSN:1674-5906
年,卷(期):2015.(11)
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