Risk Assessment of Bird Strike at Airport Based on Improved CRITIC-cloud Model
An 8 km radius surrounding a certain airport in the eastern coastal region of China was selected as the survey area.Using line transects and point count investigation methods based on different land types,140 bird species were recorded throughout the year.A detailed and comprehensive analysis was conducted on various factors influencing bird strike incidents at airports,and this study deeply studied both the explicit and implicit factors resulting in bird strikes.Through rigorous selection and evaluation,five indices were identified as risk assessment factors:bird cluster quantity,average body weight,flight altitude,net capture quantity,and flight speed.Based on these indices,a bird strike risk assessment index system was established,with index data classified into different levels based on reference materials and aligned with data characteristics.The classification levels of these indices are presented in interval form.Redundancy was observed in the data collected from the field-surveyed birds.The numerical characteristics of the traditional cloud model method were redefined to address the changes in risk values within a single-level interval.The Interval boundary values were applied as expected values for the cloud model.When multiple values existed at the interval boundaries,the expected value was revalidated based on the discrete properties of the cloud model.The strength of the cloud model was fully leveraged to address the fuzziness and uncertainty of the quantitative indices,leading to the development of an improved cloud model method.Additionally,extreme values were observed in the surveyed bird data.When the mean deviation is applied to the data,it can balance the comprehensiveness and extreme values of the data.Thus,the mean deviation was employed instead of the traditional standard deviation in the CRITIC method combined with the entropy weight method to avoid the weight value being affected by a single method.Based on this development,an improved CRITIC method was developed.By integrating the improved CRITIC method with the improved cloud model method,an improved CRITIC-cloud model method was introduced.The improved CRITIC cloud model method was applied to bird strike risk assessment at the airport.Each bird species was assigned a risk evaluation level by evaluating the risk levels of the 140 recorded bird species.A comparison of the specific data for each bird index between the improved method and the traditional CRITIC cloud model L method(traditional cloud model method)revealed that the improved CRITIC cloud model method effectively resolved data redundancy within intervals and minimized the influence of single-level intervals.This provided a more comprehensive and balanced evaluation of bird strike risk levels.In general,the improved CRITIC cloud model method proved to be more accurate and effective,making it well suited for bird strike risk assessments.From the evaluation results,bird species classified as risk levels IV and V were identified as high-risk out of a total of 26 species.These species have a higher probability of bird-strike incidents and could cause significant threats to aviation safety,heightening extra attention.Among these high-risk species,one was classified as a wild animal under Grade I conservation,and five species were classified as Grade II.Further analysis of the habitats and surrounding environments of these high-risk bird species categorized them as marine,marine-terrestrial,and terrestrial birds.This study elaborates on their living habits,reproductive characteristics,and biological traits and proposes effective preventive measures based on the surrounding environment of airports.
万方数据
维普
