Dynamics and Evolution of Guatemala's Taiwan Policy(1949-2023)
This paper explores the driving forces and strategies shaping Guatemala's Taiwan policy,with a focus on Guatemala's distinctive standing as one of the last Central American allies.It identifies two core elements influencing Guatemala's diplomatic strategies towards Taiwan:the internal power dynamics among its political elites and external pressures stemming from the United States.The paper dissects Guatemala's evolving relationship with Taiwan into three eras,using two pivotal events as demarcations:Taiwan's ousting from the United Nations in 1971 and the end of Guatemala's civil war in 1996.These periods are characterized as initial diplomatic volatility(1940-1970),a stage of mutual benefits(1971-1996),and an era of strategic bargaining with Taiwan(1997-present).Against the backdrop of the declining influence of Guatemala's military elite and the reduced impact of the US,Guatemala's Taiwan policy exhibits significant instability,signaling a potential forthcoming shift in the near future.
Cross-Straits RelationsGuatemalaElite PoliticsExternal Political RisksCentral America
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