全球价值链视角下两岸技术性贸易壁垒对国家经济安全的影响——基于全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)
The Impact of Technical Trade Barriers between Taiwan Area and Chinese Mainland on the National Economic Security
刘姗姗 1李静2
作者信息
- 1. 台湾地区标准化(厦门)研究中心
- 2. 厦门大学经济学院
- 折叠
摘要
本文利用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟两岸技术性贸易壁垒对国家经济安全的影响,研究发现两岸技术性贸易壁垒分别提高1％、5％、10％,会对两岸的投资、消费、就业率、贸易条件、进出口贸易与福利水平均造成负面影响,且台湾地区的受损程度更严重;同时,壁垒提高幅度越大,两岸受到的经济冲击越强.总体而言,祖国大陆经济体量巨大,拥有全行业产业分类,两岸技术性贸易壁垒提高并不会对国家经济安全产生太大影响.但是考虑到复杂的国际形势,通过产业链转移效应和技术性贸易措施扩散效应,也会对国家经济安全造成一定的威胁.
Abstract
This paper uses a global trade analytical model(GTAP)to study the impact of technical trade barriers between Taiwan area and Chinese mainland on the national economic security.It is found that the increase of technical trade barriers of Taiwan will bring a certain negative shock on the economic aggregate target of Chinese mainland and Taiwan,such as investment,consumption,employment,terms of trade,import or export trade and benefit levels.And the economic damage of Taiwan is more serious than that of Chinese mainland.Meanwhile,the greater increase of technical trade barriers,the more serious shocks of economic impact in the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.In general,due to the huge economic size of the Chinese mainland and has classifications of whole industry in Chinese mainland,the simple increase of technical trade barriers in Taiwan will not cause too much risk of the economic security to the Chinese mainland.However,considering the industrial chain transfer effect and SPS spread effect,the increase of technical trade barriers in Taiwan will also cause a great threat to the economic security of the Chinese mainland.
关键词
两岸贸易/技术性贸易壁垒/全球价值链/经济安全Key words
Trade across the Taiwan Straits/Technical Trade Barrier/Global Value Chain/Economic Security引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJL062)
福建省自然科学基金(2023J01031)
国家市场监督管理总局科技项目(2022MK141)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据