首页|宏观环境不确定性对管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应的影响研究——以COVID-19爆发为背景

宏观环境不确定性对管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应的影响研究——以COVID-19爆发为背景

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本文以2017-2022年沪深A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,以COVID-19爆发作为宏观环境不确定性的外生冲击,采用事件研究法研究宏观环境不确定性对管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应的影响.研究发现:宏观环境不确定期间,管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应显著提高,且集中在管理层自愿披露的"好消息".机制研究发现,企业信息不对称程度的降低是增强这一正面效应的主要原因.进一步研究发现,宏观环境不确定性对管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应的影响在受疫情影响更严重、市场化水平更高、企业规模大、收益波动小、机构持股比例高的企业更加显著.
Study on the Influence of Macro Environmental Uncertainty on the Market Reaction of Management's Voluntary Earnings Forecasts
This paper takes the non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2017 to 2022 as the re-search sample takes the COVID-19 outbreak as the exogenous impact of macro-environmental uncertainty,and studies the influ-ence of macro-environmental uncertainty on the market reaction of management's voluntary earnings forecasts by using the event research method.It is found that the market reaction to management's voluntary earnings forecasts is enhanced significant-ly during the uncertain macro-environment,and it focuses on the"good news"voluntarily disclosed by management.The mecha-nism shows that the reduction in information asymmetry is the key driver of this positive effect.Further research shows that the impact of macro-environmental uncertainty on the market response of management's voluntary earnings forecasts is more signifi-cant in enterprises with more serious epidemic situations,higher marketization levels,larger enterprise scale,less income fluctua-tion,and higher institutional shareholding ratio.

Macro environmental uncertaintyCOVID-19 outbreakthe Informativeness of management's voluntary earnings forecastsGood news

李秀珠、刘吉静

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福建农林大学经济与管理学院

宏观环境不确定性 COVID-19爆发 管理层自愿盈利预测市场反应 好消息

国家自然科学基金青年项目教育部人文社会科学研究项目福建省社科项目福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目

7170203221YJC630085FJ2023B055CXZX2022042

2024

投资研究
中国投资学会 中国建设银行

投资研究

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.956
ISSN：1003-7624
年,卷(期)：2024.43(6)