Stable Growth,Leverage Control,and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China
To analyze the potential impact of the introduction of leverage ratio targets on China's macroeconomic fluctuations,this paper constructs a quarterly forecasting model containing leverage ratio and estimates the model using China's economic da-ta.It found that in the short term,volatility in leverage ratio will have a reverse inhibitory effect on future demand;In the long run,the introduction of leverage ratio will lead to decline in China's potential output growth rate.If the government fails to fully consider the inherent connection between economic growth targets and leverage targets,the economy may fall into a vicious cycle of deceleration and high leverage.
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