首页|系统性金融风险的多维度刻画与监管策略——基于新时期二元金融风险结构视角

系统性金融风险的多维度刻画与监管策略——基于新时期二元金融风险结构视角

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防控风险是金融工作的永恒主题.本文以Diebold-Yilmaz的风险网络分析框架为核心,刻画2007-2023年期间中国金融行业、房地产行业和资本市场的风险传染(溢出)结构特征,评估系统层面的风险状态,检验风险关联网络"稳定且脆弱"的双重特性,为新时期全面加强金融监管提供建议.研究发现,银行业和资本市场是中国金融体系最主要的风险净溢出来源,传染(溢出)效应显著,房地产行业在特定时期的负外部性强烈;新的系统层面的风险指标体系可以理解为个体层面传染(溢出)效应按照"系统重要性"程度的加权平均组合,能够有效刻画风险关联网络的双重作用机制,准确识别预警重要性风险事件.
Multi-dimensional Characterization and Regulatory Strategies of Systemic Financial Risks
Risk prevention and control is an eternal theme in financial work.This article takes Diebold-Yilmaz's Risk Network Analysis framework as the core,characterizes the risk contagion(spillover)structural characteristics of China's financial industry,real estate industry,and capital market from 2007 to 2023,evaluates the risk status at the system level,tests the dual characteris-tics of the risk correlation network,which is stable yet fragile,and provides suggestions for comprehensively strengthening finan-cial regulation in the new era.The results indicate that the banking industry and capital market are the main sources of net risk spillover in China's financial system,with significant contagion(spillover)effects.The real estate industry has strong negative externalities during specific periods;The new system level risk indicator system can be understood as a weighted average combi-nation of individual level contagion(spillover)effects based on the degree of"system importance",which can effectively charac-terize the dual mechanism of risk correlation networks and accurately identify warning importance risk events.

Systemic financial riskRisk correlation networkInfectious(spillover)effectsFinancial regulation

赵锡军、沈靖人

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中国人民大学财政金融学院

中国人民大学国家金融研究院管委会

中国资本市场研究院

系统性金融风险 风险关联网络 传染(溢出)效应 金融监管

2024

投资研究
中国投资学会 中国建设银行

投资研究

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.956
ISSN:1003-7624
年,卷(期):2024.43(10)