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投资对中国经济的影响:基于双循环的视角

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在"双循环"背景下,评估投资对中国经济发展的作用具有重要的现实意义.本文测算了两类国内投资以及他国投资通过驱动国内、国际循环对中国GDP的创造和增长的贡献,并与美、日、欧盟及东盟等经济体进行了对比分析.研究发现,中国经济发展的投资驱动特征显著,且购买本国资本品的投资在国内、国际循环中表现突出;另外,中国购买来自东盟等新兴经济体的资本品的投资对中国经济增长的贡献持续增强.本文认为,中国在强化内部产业有效投资的同时,也要关注投资在优化供给结构中的功能,以有效投资畅通内循环,以内循环更好传导投资动能.此外,中国需着力提升国际循环的质量和水平,加强与包括东盟在内的新兴经济体在贸易与投资领域的紧密合作,充分释放各类投资活动通过驱动国际循环带动中国经济增长的潜能.
Impact of Investment on China's Economy:A Perspective Based on the Dual Circulation
In the context of the"dual circulation",it is of great practical significance to assess the role of investment in China's economic development.This paper measures the contribution of two types of domestic investment and other countries'invest-ment to China's GDP creation and growth as they drive domestic and international circulation,and analyses it against the econo-mies of the United States,Japan,the European Union and ASEAN.The study finds that the investment-driven feature of China's economic development is significant,and that investment in purchasing domestic capital goods is prominent in both the domestic and international circulation;in addition,China's investment in purchasing capital goods from emerging economies,such as ASEAN,has continued to increase its contribution to China's economic growth.This paper argues that China should focus on the function of investment in optimizing the supply structure while strengthening effective investment in internal industries,so as to smooth the domestic circulation through effective investment,and to better transmit investment momentum through the domestic circulation.In addition,China needs to focus on improving the quality and level of the international circulation,strengthening close cooperation with emerging economies,including ASEAN,in the field of trade and investment,and fully releasing the poten-tial of various types of investment activities as they drive international circulation to boost China's economic growth.

Value-added measurementsNew"dual circulation"development paradigmInvestment drive

潘文卿、郝远航

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清华大学经济管理学院经济系

清华大学中国经济研究中心

清华大学经济管理学院

增加值测度框架 "双循环"新发展格局 投资驱动

2024

投资研究
中国投资学会 中国建设银行

投资研究

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.956
ISSN:1003-7624
年,卷(期):2024.43(11)
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