首页|策略相似性与债券市场稳定:基于集中资产抛售视角的机制研究

策略相似性与债券市场稳定:基于集中资产抛售视角的机制研究

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交易需求的多样性能增强市场的交易质量和稳定性,而网络关联性则是影响策略相似性形成的重要因素.本文通过实证研究验证了机构策略相似性如何导致集中抛售行为,进而引发市场的价格风险和不稳定性.研究发现,以三种交易行为相似度衡量的策略相似性更高的基金在遭遇负面冲击时表现出更强的集中抛售,即机构间的高度策略相似性导致了债券市场的脆弱性增强.此外,本文也验证了中国债券市场存在很强的券种层面的流动性聚集效应,持仓债券的流动性差异会显著影响策略调整的能力.
Strategy Similarity and Bond Market Stability:A Mechanism Study Based on the Perspective of Concentrated Asset Selling
The concentrated selling behavior of bond investment institutions due to similar trading strategies is one of the impor-tant reasons for the violent volatility of China's bond market,and the network correlation greatly increases the possibility of a sin-gle point of risk quickly spreading to the entire bond market and even the entire financial system,especially when the market is down,the concentrated selling greatly exacerbates the price risk and liquidity risk of the market.This paper finds that when en-countering negative shocks,funds with higher strategy similarity show stronger concentrated selling behavior,indicating that strat-egy similarity is an important reason for the enhancement of bond market vulnerability,and there is a strong liquidity aggregation effect at the bond level in China's bond market,and there is a phenomenon that the selling intensity is affected by the liquidity dif-ference of the bonds held.This paper suggests that the similarity monitoring of speculative behaviors in the bond market,includ-ing leverage ratio and asset class preference,should be strengthened,the simplification tendency of the market and excessive risk concentration should be prevented,and the market should be appropriately guided to maintain diversification and differentiation to enhance the stability of the market.

Bond market stabilityInvestment strategy similarityNetwork correlationConcentrated selling by financial institu-tions

类承曜、白剑秋

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中国人民大学财政金融学院

中债研究所

富滇银行金融市场部

债券市场稳定 策略相似性 网络关联性 金融机构集中抛售

2024

投资研究
中国投资学会 中国建设银行

投资研究

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.956
ISSN:1003-7624
年,卷(期):2024.43(11)