基于改进DEMATEL-ISM的EPC联合体风险影响因素研究
Research on Risk Factors of EPC Consortium Based on Improved DEMATEL-ISM
张国淇 1赵庆华1
作者信息
- 1. 扬州大学 建筑科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225100
- 折叠
摘要
本文基于司法判例视角,通过"中国裁决文书网"中EPC联合体相关文书案例研究、文献分析和专家讨论提炼了 22项风险影响因素,构建了 EPC联合体风险影响体系,将DEMATEL-ISM模型与Apriori算法相结合,定量分析影响因素之间的相互关系.结果表明:改进模型可以反映各因素节点之间的客观联系,确定产生风险的13个原因因素和9个结果因素,构建3阶6层的递阶结构模型.其中,联合体信任合作风险、联合体协议风险等是导致EPC联合体项目风险发生的关键因素;进度风险、合同工期风险等属于EPC联合体项目产生风险的根本因素.研究结果可以为EPC联合体相关方采取针对性预防措施提供参考,也为EPC联合体项目风险管控提供了一定的依据和决策支持.
Abstract
From the perspective of judicial precedent,this paper extracted 22 risk factors through the case study,literature analysis and expert discussion of EPC consortium related documents in the"China Award Documents Network",constructed the risk impact system of EPC consortium,and combined the DEMATEL-ISM model with the Apriori algorithm to quantitatively analyze the relation-ship among the influencing factors.The results show that the improved model can reflect the objective relationship between the nodes of each factor:the 13 cause factors and 9 result factors of risk are de-termined,and a hierarchical structure model with 3 levels and 6 stages was built.Among them,trust cooperation risk and agreement risk of consortium are the key factors that lead to the risk of EPC con-sortium projects,and schedule risk and contract duration risk are the fundamental factors that lead to the risk of EPC consortium projects.The research results can provide reference for relevant parties of EPC consortium to take targeted preventive measures,and also provide a certain basis for risk man-agement and control of EPC consortium projects,and decision support for risk management.
关键词
EPC联合体风险/Apriori算法/DEMATEL-ISM/司法判例Key words
EPC consortium risk/Apriori algorithm/DEMATEL-ISM/judicial precedent引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据