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基于灰色系统的深厚软基上部路堤沉降预测研究

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为有效预测某深厚软基上部公路路堤的沉降趋势,在部分监测数据的基础上,采用灰色系统预测模型GM(1,N)对沉降进行预测分析,并与有限元法和分层沉降计算法的结果进行对比.结果表明:有限元分析的结果在总体趋势上与现场监测数据差异较大,理论计算只能提供最终沉降量的预测,无法满足施工阶段性变形预测要求,而GM(1,N)模型对短时间段内的路堤的沉降有较好的预测效果,时间较长时,预测数据将偏大.
Research on Predicting Light Soil Embankment Deformation Induced by Deep Soft Foundation Based on GM(1,N)
In order to effectively predict the settlement trend of a highway embankment on a deep soft foundation,based on some monitoring data,the grey system prediction model GM(1,N)was used to predict and analyze the settlement,and the results were compared with those of finite element method and layered settlement calculation method.The results show that the results of finite element analysis are quite different from the field monitoring data in general trend,and theoretical calculation can only provide the prediction of final settlement,which cannot meet the requirements of construction stage deformation prediction.However,GM(1,N)model has a good prediction effect on embankment set-tlement in a short period of time,and the prediction data will be larger when the time is longer.

highwaysoft foundationembankmentgrey systemsettlement prediction

顾维、郭芳、郭一鹏

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湖南省交通科学研究院有限公司 长沙 410015

湖南交通职业技术学院路桥工程学院 长沙 410132

长沙理工大学土木工程学院 长沙 410114

公路 软基 路堤 灰色系统 沉降预测

国家自然科学基金湖南省教育厅科学研究优秀青年项目

5200803820B205

2024

武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)
武汉理工大学

武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.462
ISSN:2095-3844
年,卷(期):2024.48(1)
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