Study and Application of Joint Assessment Model for Construction Risk of Xiangxi Yangtze River Bridge
Taking the construction risk model of main arch rib closure of Xiangxi Yangtze River Bridge as an example,considering the causal relationship between prior data and main arch rib closure error,a Bayesian network topology structure was constructed.Using the central limit theorem(CLT),the prior distribution of parent nodes in the network was updated by using dynamic multi-source monito-ring data.By combining finite element analysis with BP neural network,the corresponding relation-ship between closure error and a series of influencing parameters was established.The probability dis-tribution was determined by Monte Carlo method,and the quantitative prediction of joint construction risk error was realized.The results show that the risk probability of arch rib vertical error of Xiangxi Yangtze River Bridge is transitive,and the risk level of arch rib closure error is(75～125)mm,reac-hing Grade Ⅳ.Therefore,the prestress of anchor cable,tower buckling deviation and local tempera-ture should be closely monitored during construction.The calculated value of the joint prediction mod-el of construction risk is consistent with the trend of closure control error in engineering practice.
万方数据
维普
