In order to quantify the centralized distribution logistics risk of the cruise built-in material and scientifically allocate management resources,combined with the belief rule base and Bayesian in-ference,the uncertain and fuzzy risk evaluation information was solved.The key risk factors affecting the logistics distribution of cruise ship contents were identified,and the expression of risk parameters was refined in multiple dimensions.Based on the structure and weight of risk parameters,a rule base containing confidence was established to represent the corresponding relationship between risk param-eters and risk states.Fuzzy evaluation data were fused,and the confidence distribution of risk factors in risk states was obtained by using Bayesian inference technology.Utility function was introduced to realize the transformation from probability values to accurate values,and the ranking results of risk factors were obtained.The logic,applicability and accuracy of the model were verified by sensitivity analysis.The results show that the top three risks in the logistics distribution of cruise ship's interior materials are poor supervision of suppliers and logistics service providers by the interior general con-tractor,unclear division of rights and responsibilities of participants,and unsatisfactory storage facili-ties.
关键词
物流集配/风险评估/邮轮内装物资/置信规则库/贝叶斯网络
Key words
risk of centralized distribution logistics/risk assessment/cruise built-in material/belief rule base/Bayesian network
维普
万方数据