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出口车道数不足对信号交叉口交通安全的影响

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文中利用多元有序Logistic回归模型得到影响交叉口交通安全的关键因素,并通过边际效应量化分析各因素对安全等级的影响程度.结果表明:对于进口道有3条直行车道对应2条出口车道的交叉口,进出口道间距的影响最为显著,每增加1 m的间距,交叉口处于低风险等级的概率会提高14.9%,但间距不宜大于45 m.此外,对于进口道有2条直行车道对应1条出口车道的交叉口,车辆的通行状况不稳定,出口道宽度的影响最为显著.
Influence of Insufficient Exit Lanes on Traffic Safety at Signalized Intersections
The key factors affecting intersection traffic safety were obtained by using multivariate or-dered Logistic regression model,and the influence degree of each factor on safety level was quantita-tively analyzed through marginal effect.The results show that the distance between the entrance and exit lanes is the most significant for the intersection with three through lanes corresponding to two ex-it lanes.The probability that the intersection is at a low risk level will increase by 14.9%for every 1m spacing increase,but the spacing should not be greater than 45 m.In addition,for the intersection where there are two through lanes in the entrance lane corresponding to one exit lane,the traffic situ-ation of vehicles is unstable,and the width of the exit lane has the most significant influence.

insufficient number of exit lanestraffic safetysignalized intersectionmultivariate or-dered logistic modelmarginal effect

霍礼辉、张存保、潘寿燕、王子琦

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武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心 武汉 430063

交通信息与安全教育部工程研究中心 武汉 430063

出口车道数不足 交通安全 信号交叉口 多元有序Logistic模型 边际效应

2024

武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)
武汉理工大学

武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.462
ISSN:2095-3844
年,卷(期):2024.48(6)