Investment Risk Transmission Simulation of Overseas Railway Projects under the Background of the Belt and Road
The Belt and Road initiative has entered a new stage,and the railway industry in China is facing new development opportunities as well as more severe challenges.To control the investment risk of overseas railway projects,a system dynamics simulation model is established around the transmission path of investment risk.Firstly,the overseas railway projects are preliminarily identified by literature research and expert questionnaire survey to obtain the risk list.With the help of AHP and DEMATEL,the model parameters are estimated and the system dynamics equation is determined.Combined with the case of the Serbian railway project,this paper makes a simulation analysis,analyzes the characteristics and effects of different risk factors transmission,and puts forward targeted risk control countermeasures.The research results are expected to provide risk-coping strategies and management decision-making reference for the investment of the Belt and Road railway project and improve the investment efficiency of the project.
overseas investmentrisk transmissionpath simulationsystem dynamicsthe Belt and Road
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