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石化产业基地生态脆弱性评价研究

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绿色高效的石化产业基地是生态经济协调发展的重要内容.基于石化产业基地和生态环境相关特性,联合熵权法、模糊层次分析法、德尔菲专家打分法,构建石化产业基地生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系及模型.考虑到评价过程中的不确定性因素,构建基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的生态脆弱性评价模型,并选取连云港石化产业基地进行实证分析,结果表明:"十三五"期间,连云港石化产业基地生态环境脆弱性水平呈递减趋势,计及随机因素的评价模型表现出较强的预测能力,所构建指标体系的科学性得以验证,可为改善我国特殊区域生态环境脆弱性提供参考.
Study on Ecological Vulnerability Assessment of Petrochemical Industry Base
The green and efficient petrochemical industry base is an important content of the coordinated development of eco-logical economy.Based on the related characteristics of petrochemical industry base and ecological environment,the index system and model of ecological environment vulnerability assessment of petrochemical industry base were constructed by combining entro-py weight method,fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and Delphi expert scoring method.Considering the uncertainty factors in the assessment process,an ecological vulnerability assessment model was established based on Monte Carlo simulation method.Lianyungang Petrochemical Base is selected as the research object for empirical analysis.The results show that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the eco-environmental vulnerability level of Lianyungang Petrochemical Base showed a decreasing trend,and the evaluation model considering random factors showed strong forecasting ability.The index system provides a scien-tific method for evaluating the ecological environment fragility of the petrochemical industry base,which has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the ecological environment fragility of the special region in China.

petrochemical industry baseecological environment vulnerabilityfuzzy analytic hierarchy processentropy weight methodevaluation system

延立强、吴和成、韩建雨、付俊雅

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南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院,江苏 南京 211106

安徽大学 经济学院,安徽 合肥 230601

安徽大学 大数据与统计学院,安徽 合肥 230601

石化产业基地 生态环境脆弱性 模糊层次分析法 熵权法 评价体系

安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题"学习贯彻党的二十大精神"专项课题

AHSKY2022D0662023CXZ004

2024

武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)
武汉理工大学

武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.37
ISSN:2095-3852
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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