首页|基于SD模型的重大工程项目成功要素仿真研究

基于SD模型的重大工程项目成功要素仿真研究

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为实现重大工程项目的安全运行和可持续发展,运用系统动力学对重大工程项目成功要素进行仿真研究.首先,识别重大工程项目成功要素,构建其指标体系;其次,分析各成功要素间的作用关系,构建重大工程项目成功要素SD模型;最后,以港珠澳大桥为例,运用Vensim软件进行模拟仿真,并对12 个常量型成功要素进行敏感性分析.结果表明:增加对认知情感、高管领导、行为关系、资源整合和组织学习的投入和管控,促进重大工程项目成功;对重大工程项目成功影响显著的要素为重大工程项目管理经验、财务冗余度、数字科技的应用和行为惯性.该研究拓展了重大工程项目成功要素研究,为促进重大工程项目成功提供理论依据.
Simulation Research on Success Factors of Megaprojects Based on SD Model
To achieve safe operation and sustainable development of megaprojects,the success factors of megaprojects are simulated and studied using system dynamics.Firstly,the success factors of megaprojects was identified and their index system was constructed.Secondly,the interactions among the success factors and construct the SD model of the success factors of mega-projects were analyzed.Finally,taking the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge as an example,the simulation was conducted u-sing Vensim software and sensitivity analysis was performed on 12 constant-type success factors.The results show that increased investment and control in cognitive-emotional,executive leadership,behavioral relationships,resource integration,and organi-zational learning promote megaproject success and the factors that have a significant impact on megaproject success are mega-project management experience,financial redundancy,application of digital technology,and behavioral inertia.This expands the study of the success factors of megaprojects and provides a theoretical basis for promoting the success of megaprojects.

megaprojectssuccess factorssystem dynamicsSD modelsimulationHong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge

刘怡娟、赵娜、李明顺

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长沙理工大学 交通运输工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114

重大工程 成功要素 系统动力学 SD模型 模拟仿真 港珠澳大桥

长沙理工大学公路工程教育部重点实验室开放基金项目

kfj220201

2024

武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)
武汉理工大学

武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.37
ISSN:2095-3852
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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