Scenario Evolution Analysis of Infectious Disease Emergencies in Universities Based on Bayesian Networks
To address the issue of how universities can scientifically and effectively respond to sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases,first,100 text materials were selected from the official websites of universities in Wuhan,Hubei Province.Using the grounded theory,they were organized into 193 concepts and 117 categories to construct situational elements of sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases in universities.An accident tree for sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases in universities was established to sort out the logic of scenario evolution.Combining with expert scoring method and data analysis method,a scenario evolution Bayesian network containing 19 nodes for the outbreak of infectious diseases in universities was established.The results indicated that"epidemic area control","large-scale vaccination",and"unified patient management"are the key factors for the decrease in the number of new cases;"Providing sufficient materials"and"promoting prevention and control knowledge"have a signifi-cant impact on"personnel psychological problems";In the case of viral mutations,the probability of a decrease in the number of new cases without taking any measures is only 21%,while in the case of normalized epidemic prevention and control,it can reach 86.7%.
infectious disease emergenciesscenario evolutiongrounded theoryBayesian networkfault tree analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
