基于贝叶斯网络推理的大坝风险评估
Dam risk assessment based on Bayesian network inference
唐贤琪 1施玉群 1杨海云 2陈泽钦 2何金平1
作者信息
- 1. 武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉 430072;武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉 430072
- 2. 国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,福建福州 350007
- 折叠
摘要
大坝风险评估对大坝风险控制和安全管理具有重要意义.贝叶斯网络作为不确定性表达和概率推理的工具,是大坝风险评估的有效手段.以贝叶斯网络方法为基础,以某水电站大坝为工程实例,结合工程特性和运行环境,通过对该大坝风险因素的识别和风险因素关联性的确定,构建大坝风险评估的贝叶斯网络;然后以专家知识和工程经验为依据,确定各风险因素之间的关联程度,在此基础上利用贝叶斯网络正向推理功能推求该水电站大坝安全的总风险,并基于风险标准对该大坝安全风险进行评估,利用贝叶斯网络逆向推理功能计算各风险因素的重要度,以确定出威胁大坝安全的关键风险因素,为该大坝风险管理提供决策支持.此推理模型的应用为大坝风险评估提供了一条新的有效途径.
Abstract
Risk assessment of dams is of great significance to risk control and safety management of dams.As a tool of uncertainty expression and probabilistic reasoning,Bayesian network is an effective method for dam risk assessment.Based on the Bayesian network method,taking a hydropower dam as a project case,combining the engineering characteristics and operating environment,the Bayesian network for dam risk assessment is constructed by identifying the dam risk factors and determining the correlation of the risk factors.The correlation degrees of dam risk factors are determined by expert knowledge and engineering experience.On this basis,the total safety risk of the dam is deduced by using the forward inference function of Bayesian network,and then the safety risk of the dam is evaluated based on the risk standard.Moreover,the importance of each risk factor is calculated by using the inverse inference function of Bayesian network to determine the key risk factors threatening the dam safety,and to provide decision support for dam risk management.The application of Bayesian network inference model enriches the risk assessment method of dams.
关键词
大坝/风险评估/贝叶斯网络推理/失事概率/节点重要度Key words
dam/risk assessment/Bayesian network inference/failure probability/node importance引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国网福建省电力有限公司科技项目(52130417000M)
国家重点研究发展计划项目(2018YFC0406906)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据