Dam risk assessment based on Bayesian network inference
Risk assessment of dams is of great significance to risk control and safety management of dams.As a tool of uncertainty expression and probabilistic reasoning,Bayesian network is an effective method for dam risk assessment.Based on the Bayesian network method,taking a hydropower dam as a project case,combining the engineering characteristics and operating environment,the Bayesian network for dam risk assessment is constructed by identifying the dam risk factors and determining the correlation of the risk factors.The correlation degrees of dam risk factors are determined by expert knowledge and engineering experience.On this basis,the total safety risk of the dam is deduced by using the forward inference function of Bayesian network,and then the safety risk of the dam is evaluated based on the risk standard.Moreover,the importance of each risk factor is calculated by using the inverse inference function of Bayesian network to determine the key risk factors threatening the dam safety,and to provide decision support for dam risk management.The application of Bayesian network inference model enriches the risk assessment method of dams.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
