Application of innovative trend analysis method in extreme climate trend analysis
Based on the extreme air temperature index from 1980 to 2019 and the extreme precipitation index from 1980 to 2015 in Xiamen City,the innovative trend analysis(ITA)method is introduced into the extreme index trend analysis,and the results are compared with those of Mann-Kendall(M-K)test and linear regression methods to evaluate the effectiveness and uniqueness of the method.The results show that the ITA method has a strong consistency with the M-K and linear regression method in the overall trend evaluation of the extreme index series.These three methods all evaluate that the temperature in Xiamen shows a significant upward trend,and the precipitation shows an upward trend,even though the trend is not obvious.The ITA method can also evaluate the secondary trends of low,medium,and high values in the extreme index series,so as to predict the trend of increasing probability of future high temperature events and extreme rainstorm events.As an image method,the ITA method is convenient for calculating.It can not only represent the overall trend of data series,but also evaluate the changes of sub-trends.The ITA method is suitable for evaluating the change trend in extreme climate events.
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