ITA法在极端气候趋势分析中的适用性研究
Application of innovative trend analysis method in extreme climate trend analysis
刘利轲 1赵超 1沈凯琦 1李铠峰 1刘涵 1李文彧1
作者信息
- 1. 厦门理工学院环境科学与工程学院,福建厦门 361024;厦门市水资源利用与保护重点实验室,福建厦门 361024
- 折叠
摘要
基于厦门市1980-2019年极端气温指数及1980-2015年极端降水指数,将创新趋势分析(innovative trend analysis,ITA)法引入极端指数趋势分析中,并将结果与Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、线性回归法的结果对比,评估方法的有效性和独特性.结果表明:ITA法在极端指数序列总体趋势评估方面与M-K检验和线性回归法具有很强的一致性,均评估出厦门市气温呈显著性上升趋势,降水量呈上升趋势但趋势不明显.ITA法还可评估出极端指数序列中低、中、高值的次级趋势,从而预测出未来高温事件和极端暴雨事件出现概率增大的趋势.ITA法作为一种图像方法,计算简便,它既能表示数据序列总体趋势,还可评估子趋势的变化,适用于极端气候事件变化趋势的评估.
Abstract
Based on the extreme air temperature index from 1980 to 2019 and the extreme precipitation index from 1980 to 2015 in Xiamen City,the innovative trend analysis(ITA)method is introduced into the extreme index trend analysis,and the results are compared with those of Mann-Kendall(M-K)test and linear regression methods to evaluate the effectiveness and uniqueness of the method.The results show that the ITA method has a strong consistency with the M-K and linear regression method in the overall trend evaluation of the extreme index series.These three methods all evaluate that the temperature in Xiamen shows a significant upward trend,and the precipitation shows an upward trend,even though the trend is not obvious.The ITA method can also evaluate the secondary trends of low,medium,and high values in the extreme index series,so as to predict the trend of increasing probability of future high temperature events and extreme rainstorm events.As an image method,the ITA method is convenient for calculating.It can not only represent the overall trend of data series,but also evaluate the changes of sub-trends.The ITA method is suitable for evaluating the change trend in extreme climate events.
关键词
极端气候/趋势分析/ITAKey words
extreme climate/trend analysis/innovation trend analysis(ITA)引用本文复制引用
基金项目
福建省自然科学基金(2022J011232)
福建省自然科学基金(2020J01258)
厦门市科技计划(3502Z20203063)
厦门理工学院科研攀登计划(XPDKT19028)
厦门理工学院研究生科技创新项目(YKJCX2021148)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据