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非均质斜坡降雨入渗失稳机理及可靠度分析

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目前降雨诱发斜坡可靠度分析常忽略了现场观测信息的影响,不能真实反映降雨入渗下潜在不稳定区域分布及实际可靠度水平.为此,以非饱和二维边坡为例,首先利用贝叶斯更新方法融合"天然工况下斜坡保持稳定"这一观测信息,对空间变异土体抗剪强度参数进行概率反分析,再采用局部安全系数法考虑水力和抗剪强度参数空间变异性并进行非均质斜坡稳定性分析,最后基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算斜坡失效概率随降雨历时的变化规律.同时,开发了HYDRUS-2D软件接口程序,给出了详细的HYDRUS-2D软件内核计算流程,并且对比分析了忽略现场观测信息对斜坡失效概率的影响.结果表明:融合观测信息可以有效缩减斜坡土体参数不确定性,排除斜坡沿因抗剪强度参数空间变异性引起的材料强度软弱区发生失稳的可能性,揭示了降雨这一单一因素诱发斜坡失稳机理.此外,采用局部安全系数方法进行斜坡概率分析能够获得降雨入渗下斜坡失效概率和潜在不稳定区域分布.
Failure mechanism and reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes induced by rainfall infiltration
The current rainfall-induced slope reliability analysis often ignores the influence of field observation information,which cannot realistically reflect the distribution of potential unstable regions and the actual reliability level caused by rainfall infiltration.Therefore,an unsaturated two-dimensional slope is taken as an example,and the Bayesian updating method is used to integrate the observed information of"slope remains stable under natural conditions"for probabilistic back analysis of the spatially varying soil shear strength parameters.Then,the local safety factor method is adopted for the stability analysis of heterogeneous slopes by considering the spatial variability of hydraulic and shear strength parameters.Finally,the variation of probability of slope failure with rainfall duration is calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation method.Additionally,the HYDRUS-2D software interface program is developed,a detailed HYDRUS-2D software kernel calculation procedure is provided,and the influence of ignoring field observation information on the probability of slope failure is compared and analyzed.The results show that the fusion of observation information can effectively reduce the uncertainty of slope soil parameters,exclude the possibility of slope failure along the weak zones of material strength caused by the spatial variability of shear strength parameters,and reveal the rainfall-induced slope failure mechanism.In addition,the local safety factor method-based slope stability probability analysis can obtain the probability of slope failure and the distribution of potential instability areas caused by rainfall infiltration.

slope instability mechanismrainfall infiltrationspatial variabilityprobabilistic back analysisreliability analysis

揭鸿鹄、张浮平、蒋水华、李嵩、黄河、陈永清、李彧玮

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南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌 330031

长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉 430010

江西省天然气管道有限公司,江西南昌 330096

中铁水利水电规划设计集团有限公司,江西南昌 330029

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斜坡失稳机理 降雨入渗 空间变异性 概率反分析 可靠度分析

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目江西省自然科学基金资助项目江西省自然科学基金资助项目江西省水利科技计划资助项目江西省水利科技计划资助项目江西省研究生创新基金项目

522229055217910320232ACB20403120224ACB204019202325ZDKT07202426ZDKT12YC2022-S182

2024

10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024-07-004

武汉大学学报(工学版)
武汉大学

武汉大学学报(工学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.621
ISSN：1671-8844
年,卷(期)：2024.57(7)
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