As a key node in the supply chain,the manufacturing enterprise is closely connected to its up-stream and downstream reaches via the flow of supply chain elements.Since the stability of the supply chain structure is affected by multiple internal and external factors,and in light of the suddenness and diversity and the risks of supply interruption,the manufacturing enterprise will suffer huge economic losses once such event of supply interruption occurs.Therefore,it is crucial to study the purchasing response behavior of the manufac-turing enterprise under conditions of supply uncertainty.From the perspective of the manufacturing enterprise,with the first-and second-tier supplier companies most closely associated to the manufacturing enterprise as the supply object,this paper introduces a number of factors such as supply qualification rate and opening inventory,etc.,and constructs the single-source and dual-source purchasing strategy models of the manufacturing enterprise under supply uncertainty through simula-tion.Next,it explores the impact of the potential supply interruption risk on the manufacturing company's de-cision-making after fully considering the opening inventory,supply product qualification rate,and price-elas-tic market demand,uses the statistical tool to draw the derivation results,and conducts a comprehensive sensi-tivity analysis on the relevant parameters.Then,through numerical analysis,it looks at the impact of factors such as market price sensitivity,and supplier product qualification rate,etc.on the manufacturing company's purchasing strategy.Finally,relevant conclusions are drawn:First,in event of supply interruption,there exists the variable of supply interruption probability,which,in order to maximize its profit,the manufacturing enter-prise should consider when deciding the optimal purchasing strategy most beneficial to the development of the company;second,since there are many variables such as opening inventory,interruption risk probability,and market demand change rate,etc.in the mathematical model constructed in this paper,the manufacturing enter-prise should monitor industry market conditions and supplier-related conditions in real time so as to update the data used in the modeling process and ensure the authenticity of the data and the optimization of decision-making results;thirdly,in response to supply uncertainty,the manufacturing enterprise should be cautionary to a certain extent and fully consider such various risk factors as corporate fund rupture,natural disaster,or im-proper decision-making,etc.which may lead to supply interruption.In addition,enterprise decision-makers must have sufficient understanding of the relationship between the important parameters involved in the study,and can make prompt decisions when they undergo significant change.Through this research,we hope to help the manufacturing enterprise achieve maximum expected profits under conditions of supply uncertainty,and to solve the economic problems caused by improper pur-chasing strategies,etc.
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