Optimization Model of Emergency Materials Distribution in Major Emergencies
According to the characteristics of major emergencies,unreasonable allocation of emergency supplies may exacerbate the impact of the emergency events.On such basis,we focused on the reasonableness of material allocation based on the number of deaths and injuries in disaster events,infections and deaths in pub-lic health events,and optimized the number of delivery points.To reduce the impact of major emergencies,based on the theory of grey prediction and entropy weight method,aiming at the reasonableness of the management and distribution of emergency materials in major emergencies,we used the grey prediction method to predict the situation without emergency materials alloca-tion,compared it with the situation with allocation of emergency materials,and verified the accuracy of the model through posterior variance test.Then,we selected evaluation indicators that affect the distribution quantity of emergency materials,and set up the entropy weight evaluation model to optimize the distribution site numbers of emergency materials.Next,in an empirical case of Changchun,by analyzing the number of newly infected persons in each district of Changchun before and after the distribution of emergency materials(or vegetable packets),we discussed the reasonableness of the number of delivery points in different regions of Changchun,analyzed the effect of emer-gency materials in Changchun on epidemic prevention and control,and optimized the number of delivery points.Also,we found that the reasonable distribution of emergency materials in major emergencies can cer-tainly help reduce the impact on people's lives,work,and property.This study is an effective supplement to existing researches on the reasonableness of material distribution in major emergencies,and can also provide necessary reference for optimizing the number of delivery points of emergency materials in major emergencies.The result shows that(1)reasonable distribution of emergency materials is an effective measure to deal with major emergencies;(2)optimizing the number of delivery points is a key factor to improve the reasonable distribution of emergency materials.Compared with previous studies,in combination with the GM(1,1)prediction method and the entropy weight evaluation model,the method adopted in this paper can also be used to analyze and optimize the reason-able allocation of emergency materials in other emergency events,such as earthquakes,floods and other infec-tious diseases.In the future,we will further consider the distance between delivery points of emergency materials,estab-lish the optimal distance model,find the best delivery points,and optimize the site selection,so as to support de-livering efficiency of emergency materials.
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