To encourage the green and low-carbon development of China's canal transport industry,systematic analysis of the elements that influence carbon emissions and peak time and peak value prediction are extremely important.First,the emission factor method is used to measure the carbon emissions of waterway transport sector from 2001 to 2020.Next,the LMDI decomposition model is constructed to analyze the carbon emission influencing factors.Finally,on the basis of STIRPAT model,the scenario analysis method is applied to set nine scenarios to predict the carbon emission peak of China's waterway transport sector from 2021 to 2035.The results show that from 2001 to 2020,the overall carbon emissions of China's waterway transport sector show an upward trend,that economic activities are the primary driver of carbon emission growth,and transportation intensity is the largest inhibiting factor,that there are significant differences in the timing and peak value of carbon emissions in the waterway transport sector under different scenarios,among which the"medium growth and high emission reduction"scenario,which balances development and emission reduction,has reached the peak value of 101.136 million tons in 2019,which is the optimal carbon peak scenario for China's waterway transport sector.
关键词
碳达峰预测/LMDI/STIRPAT/水运业
Key words
carbon peak prediction/LMDI/STIRPAT/waterway transport sector
维普
万方数据