首页|基于变权理论的城市火灾风险预警模型研究

基于变权理论的城市火灾风险预警模型研究

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随着城镇化水平不断提高,城市火灾呈现增多趋势.建立城市区域火灾风险动态预警模型,有利于提升防火监督工作效率,降低城市火灾风险.将变权理论应用到城市火灾风险评估领域,以上海市为研究对象,首先对其火灾情况进行统计分析,确定火灾风险预警指标体系并收集相关数据;然后根据城市区域火灾风险预警特点构建状态变权向量,并利用聚类分析法、熵权法、层次分析法及相关公式求解变权区间与调权参数;最后建立基于变权理论的城市区域火灾风险动态预警模型,并对其火灾风险进行评价.
Research on Early Warning Model of Urban Fire Risks Based on Variable Weight Theory
With the continuous improvement of urbanization,urban fires show an increasing trend.Establishing a dynamic early warning model for fire risks in urban areas is conducive to improving the efficiency of fire protection supervision and reducing urban fire risks.This paper applies the variable weight theory to the field of fire risk assess-ment with Shanghai as the research area.Based on the statistical analysis of the fire situation in Shanghai,a fire risk warning indicators system was set up with relevant data collected;then status variable weight vectors were constructed according to the characteristics of urban fire risk early warnings.Weight intervals and adjustment parameters were solved by luster analysis,entropy weight method,analytic hierarchy process,and relevant formulas.Finally,a dynamic warning model of urban fire risk based on variable weight theory is established to evalu-ate urban fire risks.

urban fire riskvariable weight theorywarning model

李会荣、雷蕾

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中国人民警察大学 防火工程学院,河北 廊坊 065000

城市火灾风险 变权理论 预警模型

河北省教育厅青年基金项目

QN2021322

2024

中国人民警察大学学报
中国人民武装警察部队学院

中国人民警察大学学报

影响因子:0.378
ISSN:2097-0900
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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