首页|基于威胁度评价的巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件空间分布特征研究

基于威胁度评价的巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件空间分布特征研究

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基于巴基斯坦境内2011-2020年恐怖袭击事件数据信息,利用量化评估方法计算恐怖袭击事件的威胁度,采用核密度、空间自相关、Gi*指数以及新兴时空热点等分析方法,研究巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件的空间演变特征.研究表明:巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件按威胁度从低到高可分为五个等级,各等级在空间分布特征上具有一致性.2011-2020年巴基斯坦境内恐怖袭击事件呈现显著的空间聚集性,在聚集区域上主要分为三个核心活跃区,即白沙瓦、奎达、卡拉奇.恐怖袭击事件的热点区域主要集中在这三个核心活跃区,无冷点区域.恐怖袭击事件的新兴时空热点模式主要以连续热点和持续的热点为主并且相对稳定,同样分布在三个核心活跃区附近,冷点区域大部分以连续冷点的形式出现,新增冷点则主要出现在马拉坎附近区域.
Research on the Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan Based on Damage Assessment
Based on the data of terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2011 to 2020,the security threat level of terrorist attacks was calculated using quantitative assessment methods.The spatial evolution characteristics of terrorist attacks in Pakistan were studied using analysis methods,such as kernel density estimation,Moran's I,Getis-Ord Gi*,and emerging spatiotemporal hot spot analysis.Research shows that terrorist attacks in Pakistan can be divided into five levels of the threat from low to high.Each level is consistent in spatial distribution characteristics.The terrorist attacks in Pakistan from 2011 to 2020 show significant spatial clustering.The clustered regions mainly include three core active areas that are Peshawar,Quetta and Karachi.The hot spots of terrorist attacks are mainly concentrated in the three core active areas,with no cold spots.The emerging spatiotemporal hot spot patterns of ter-rorist attacks are mainly characterized by continuous and persistent hot spots,which are relatively stable and distributed near the three core active areas.The cold spot areas mostly appear in the form of continuous cold spots,while the newly added cold spots mainly appear in the area near Malakan.

Pakistanterrorist attacksthreat assessmentspatial-temporal evolutionGetis-Ord Gi*GIS

徐顺聪、杨永斌、张世伟、张磊

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中国人民警察大学,河北 廊坊 065000

巴基斯坦 恐怖袭击 威胁度评价 时空演变 热点分析 GIS

教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金

20YJA860002

2024

中国人民警察大学学报
中国人民武装警察部队学院

中国人民警察大学学报

影响因子:0.378
ISSN:2097-0900
年,卷(期):2024.40(3)
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