首页|基于系统动力学的有组织犯罪侦查经营风险研究

基于系统动力学的有组织犯罪侦查经营风险研究

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侦查经营是打击有组织犯罪常见侦查策略和方式,能够最大限度厘清组织脉络、查清犯罪事实,但与此同时,有组织犯罪的复杂性和侦查过程的经营性使得侦查机关面临较大经济风险、法律风险和社会风险.基于风险因素识别,构建有组织犯罪侦查经营风险系统动力学模型,以"6·10"唐山烧烤店打人案为例,借助Vensim PLE软件进行仿真分析.由仿真结果可知:侦查决策失误、公职人员渎职违纪和网络舆情是有组织犯罪侦查经营风险增加的主要原因,侦查机关要加强风险动态评估、规范侦查经营实施全过程、强化网络舆情管控能力,进而实现有组织犯罪侦查经营风险防控的科学性和有效性.
Study on Risks of Organized Crime Investigative Business Based on System Dynamics
Investigative business is the common investigation strategy and approach to combat organized crime,which can maximize the clarification of organizational connections and uncover all the criminal facts.But at the same time,the complexity of organized crime and the business nature of the investigation process make the investigating authorities face greater economic,legal and social risks.Based on the identification of risk factors,the system dynamics model of organized crime investigative business risk is constructed,and the"6·10"Tangshan assault case is taken as an example.The simulation analysis is carried out with the help of Vensim PLE software.The simulation results show that investigative decision-making errors,public officials'dereliction of duty and violations of discipline and network public opinion are the main reasons for the increase in the risk of the organized crime investigative business.The investigating authorities should strengthen the dynamic assessment of the risk,standard-ize the whole process of the implementation of investigative business,and strengthen the ability of network public opinion control and management,so as to achieve the scientific and effective prevention and control of the risk of the investigative business of organized crime.

organized crimeinvestigative businesssystem dynamicsmodel simulationrisk prevention and control

杨胜钦

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中国人民公安大学 研究生院,北京 100038

有组织犯罪 侦查经营 系统动力学 模型仿真 风险防控

2024

中国人民警察大学学报
中国人民武装警察部队学院

中国人民警察大学学报

影响因子:0.378
ISSN:2097-0900
年,卷(期):2024.40(4)
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