A Study of the Prediction of the Population Size of Guangdong and the Effect on its Economic Growth
A moderate population size is an important prerequisite for high-quality economic development.Based on the data on the resi-dent population in Guangdong Province from 1995 to 2021,this paper comprehensively predicts the size of the resident population in Guang-dong Province from 2025 to 2040 by using various models.Using population inertia factors,policy adjustment factors and economic develop-ment factors to revise the forecast results,we predict the permanent population of Guangdong will reach 172,584,200 in 2040.An empirical analysis shows that the permanent population of Guangdong has a significant role in promoting economic growth in terms of employment and human capital on the supply side,and consumption and investment on the demand side.Policies should focus on attracting the continuous inflow of external population,transforming the existing population advantages into economic growth advantages,and fully releasing the demo-graphic dividend from both the supply side and the demand side.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
