East Wind Returns with Spring:Analysis and Forecast of Wenzhou's Industrial Economy Operation(2023-2024)
In 2023,Wengzhou's industrial economy has advanced steadily within a balanced recovery.Through comprehensive analysis of progress data and historical data from multiple dimensions such as advancing indicators,leading indicators,synchronous indicators,and lagging indicators,it is found that the industrial production's"recovery"momentum,coupled with"endogenous"forces,jointly drives the industrial boom upwards;current prices are near the bottom range,and positive price differentials elevate the profit floor,leading to a climb in profit margins that drives growth in industrial profits;a periodic mismatch between current demand and capacity output exists,lacking continuous momentum for inventory replenishment;weakened demand suppresses the release of capacity and the energy for inventory replenishment,prolonging the time for capacity recovery;the fragility of industrial enterprises'debt relationships has increased,reducing the willingness to invest,with weaker upward momentum in investment growth.Looking ahead to 2024,production is expected to continue its mild recovery,with the central trajectory of industrial economic growth predicted at 10.36%for the full year;industrial investment may overshoot,with the central growth rate of annual industrial investment expected to return to the normal range;the industrial profit margin curve will flatten,with a turning point in price recovery approaching,leading to a modest rebound in corporate earnings within the year.
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