The Trade and Welfare Effects of Emission Reduction and Carbon Tariffs on China
As one of the parties to the Paris Agreement,China has moved quickly in fulfilling its emission reduction commitments.However,ignoring the emission reduction contributions of developing countries such as China,some developed countries continue to impose carbon tariffs on the pretext of curbing"carbon leakage",and may form carbon tariff alliance.The existing literature seldom provides an accurate assessment of the economic costs of China's fulfilling its emission reduction commitments and the economic impacts of carbon tariffs,and in particular lacks in-depth analyses of the economic impacts of the formation of carbon tariff alliance in developed countries.On the basis of systematic evaluating the impacts of fulfilling China's emission reduction commitments in the Paris Agreement,this paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the trade and welfare effects of carbon tariffs imposed by the European Union,the formation of carbon tariff alliance,and the upgrading of China's low-carbon technologies.The results show that:Firstly,in order to reach Chinese emission reduction targets,China pays the price of declining in the trade and welfare;Secondly,carbon tariffs imposed by developed countries will decrease China's welfare,which mainly stems from the deterioration of China's terms of trade and the reduction of trade volume;Thirdly,China's fulfilling emission reduction commitments and developed countries imposing carbon tariffs will deepen industrial cooperation and trade ties between China and ASEAN;Fourthly,China's upgrading of low-carbon technologies can promote domestic welfare growth through both direct and indirect effects,offsetting the negative impacts of emission reductions commitments and carbon tariffs.The paper contributes the existing literature in three aspects:Firstly,it links the emission reduction commitments of Paris Agreement parties to the framework of carbon tariffs,which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing literature on carbon tariffs ignoring the emission reduction commitments.Aiming at the current situation that some developed countries are strengthening their containment of China by building alliances,it proposes the concept of carbon tariff alliance and quantitatively estimates its economic impact on China,which reveals the impact boundaries of the carbon tariffs and the pressurized situation of China's economy.Secondly,it assesses the trade and welfare effects of emission reduction commitments and carbon tariffs on China,and decomposes their changes channels,which enriches the existing research from a new perspective.Thirdly,it estimates the impacts of emission reduction commitments and carbon tariffs on China's trade structure and trade pattern,which is helpful for China to formulate foreign trade development strategies under the new situation;this paper also finds that China's increasing fossil energy efficiency and the proportion of clean energy uses can effectively reduce the negative impacts of emission reduction commitments and carbon tariffs,which provides a new way to promote global greenhouse gas emission reductions.
Paris Agreementemission reductioncarbon tariffstrade structurewelfare levelGTAP-E model
万方数据
