Downscaling precipitation prediction in Shaanxi Province based on monthly dynamic extended range forecast
To establish downscaling monthly precipitation prediction model in Shaanxi Province.By using monthly dynamic extended range forecast (DERF) products,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and 40 station data in Shaanxi,downscaling monthly precipitation are predicted using the optimal subset regression from correlation analysis between monthly precipitation and atmospheric circulation elements.It has high prediction quality in summer than in winter and more stable prediction ability in summer and autumn than in spring.The prediction ability is higher in South Shaanxi and Guanzhong,lower in North Shaanxi; meanwhile it has obvious seasonal variation in North Shaanxi and South Shaanxi and more stable prediction ability in Guanzhong.Based on the forecast method,unusual trends of extreme events are consistent with the fact,but there is discrepancy in abnormal degree and range between method result and the fact.Meanwhile the method has apparent sensitivity of the forecast initial field.The method has improved predictive capability of unusual climate and extreme events in Shaanxi Province.
monthly dynamic extended range forecastprecipitationdownscaling forecastShannxi Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
