Transition Growth Matrix Models for Mixed Larix gmelinii Natural Forests in Daxing'an Mountain
The diameter transfer matrix growth model of Larix gmelinii natural forest occurring in the Daxing'an Mountain in Inner Mongolia was established to predict the forest growth and stand attributes,and to provide some references for restoration of forest structure and function.Based on the data of 667 sample plots of L.gmelinii natural forest from 8th and 9th Chinese National Continuous Forest Inventory in Inner Mongolia,we developed the variable parameter transition matrix models(VMs)and fixed parameter transition matrix models(FMs)for major species groups,namely Pine,Birch,Oak and OS.Then,the growth models,recruitment models,and mortality models were used to predict stand basal area in the next five years and stand parameters in nearly one hundred years.VM fitting indicated that the tree size,diversi-ty,stand attributes,competition index and site conditions had significant effects on the tree growth,recruit-ment,and mortality(P＜0.05).The R2of the models were above 0.82,and the values of MAE were less than 18％,but there was little difference between FMs and VMs in prediction accuracy.The results of the short-term prediction of FM for tree size diversity index,tree species diversity index,stand basal area and stand density were high,and the long-term prediction of VM was in line with the theoretical value.There-fore,the transition matrix models of L.gmelinii natural forest have good explanatory and predictive ability,in which the VM that takes into account the forest stand status provides a reasonable forecast of stand structure.
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