马尿泡是青藏高原特有植物，具有重要的药用价值，预测潜在适宜分布区对其资源保护和人工种植具有重要指导意义。选择青藏高原及其毗邻地区为研究区域，运用 MaxEnt模型，利用187个有效分布点和28个环境因子，模拟马尿泡当代地理空间分布，以及未来(2050s、2070s)RCP2。6、RCP4。5、RCP6。0和RCP8。5气候情景下的适生分布区，并确定了影响其地理分布的主要因子。结果表明:1)AUC值为 0。956，随机误差为0。007，表明 MaxEnt模型对未来8个不同气候情景下马尿泡潜在适生区预测效果良好。2)影响马尿泡潜在分布的主导因子主要有海拔、最暖季降水量、总氮、温度季节性方差和等温性，贡献率分别为72。1%、13。9%、6。0%、3。3%和3。2%，占总贡献率的98。5%，海拔和降水量是影响马尿泡分布的决定性因子。海拔(3 600～5 100 m)、最暖季降水量(320～350 mm)、总氮(1。15～1。18 mg/kg)、温度季节性变化方差(73～82℃)、等温性指标(36%～38%)、土壤pH(6。5～6。8)为马尿泡适宜分布的环境条件。3)在当代气候条件下，马尿泡的总适生区面积为11。20×105 km2，集中分布在青海大部、西藏中东部、四川西北部和甘肃甘南地区。4)未来气候变化情景下，在2050sRCP2。6、RCP4。5、RCP6。0和RCP8。5气候条件下总适生区的面积分别为10。30×105、9。79×105、9。93×105 km2 和9。23×105 km2;在2070sRCP2。6、RCP4。5、RCP6。0和RCP8。5气候条件下总适生区的面积分别为10。34×105、9。75×105、9。66×105 km2 和8。51×105 km2;马尿泡的潜在适生区均有不同程度的缩小，高排放情景比低排放情景更为明显，2070s比2050s更为明显，新疆、四川、甘肃境内的马尿泡适生区逐渐消失，主要集中于青海、西藏境内。5)马尿泡的潜在适生区向西北向迁移，整体向高纬度地区退缩。
Geospatial Pattern and Potential Distribution Prediction of Endemic Plant Przewalskia tangutica on the Tibetan Plateau
Przewalskia tangutica is an endemic plant to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.It has important medici-nal value.Prediction of potential suitable areas can provide important reference for the conservation and artificial cultivation of P.tangutica.In this study,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent regions were selected as the study areas.Based on 187 effective distribution records and 28 environmental factor varia-bles,MaxEnt and ArcGIS models were used to simulate the suitable distribution areas of the plant under three climate scenarios,namely the present and future(2050s,2070s)RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The main factors influencing the geographical distribution of the plant were identified.The results showed that 1)the mean value of AUC of training data sets was 0.956,and the mean value of random error was 0.007,indicating the high simulation prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model.2)The main factors affecting the geographical distribution of P.tangutica were altitude,precipitation of warmest season,total nitrogen,temperature seasonality and isotherm,contributing 72.1%,13.9%,6.0%,3.3%and 3.2%,respectively,accounting for 98.5%of the total contribution.Elevation and rainfall were the decisive factors affecting the distribution.Altitude(3 600-5 100 m),precipitation in the warmest season(320-350 mm),total nitro-gen(1.15-1.18 mg/kg),variance of temperature seasonal change(73-82℃),isothermal index(36%-38%),soil pH(6.5-6.8)were suitable for growing of P.tangutica.3)Under contemporary climatic con-ditions,the total habitat area of P.tangutica was 11.20×105 km2,which covers most of Qinghai,central and eastern of Tibet,northwestern of Sichuan and Gannan area of Gansu Province.4)Under the future climate change scenario,under the climate conditions of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s,the total suitable areas would be 10.30×105,9.79×105,9.93×105 and 9.23×105 km2,respective-ly.Under the conditions of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in 2070s,the total suitable areas would be 10.34×105,9.75×105,9.66×105 and 8.51×105 km2,respectively.The potential suitable areas of P.tangutica decreased to different degrees,and the high emission scenario was more obvious than the low emission scenario,and the suitable areas in the 2070s was more obvious than the 2050s.The suitable areas in Xinjiang,Sichuan and Gansu gradually disappeared,mainly concentrated in Qinghai and Tibet.5)The potential suitable area would migrate to northwest,and generally retreat to the higher latitudes.
Tibetan plateauPrzewalskia tanguticapotential suitable areaMaxEnt modelclimate changeof distribution simulation
万方数据
维普
