A Path Study on the Impact of Low Birth Rate and Population Aging on National Economic Growth Mechanism——Based on Empirical Evidence from G20 Economies
Based on Porter Hypothesis and Schumpeter's Technological Innovation Theory,using panel data from G20 economies from 1999 to 2022,and adopting mediating effect model and moderating effect model,this article explores the impact mechanism of low birth rate and population aging and technological innovation on national economic growth.The study finds that low birth rate and population aging have a significant negative impact on national economic growth.It promotes the improvement of technological innovation capabilities through the"incentive mechanism",and technological innovation plays a positive partial mediating role in low birth rate and population aging and national economic growth,alleviating the inhibitory effect of low birth rate and population aging on economic growth.Urbanization and the degree of privatization play an important role in alleviating the negative impact of low birth rate and population aging on economic growth.Developing economies show a"late-mover advantage"effect in promoting national economic growth through technological innovation.Policymakers should attach importance to urbanization and the development of private sector and promote economic growth through measures of improving technological innovation,perfecting policies of raising the retirement age and supporting childbirth.
low birthrate and population agingtechnological innovationnational economic growthMoran's Ithreshold effect
万方数据
