西部医学2025,Vol.37Issue(1) :75-79.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3511.2025.01.014

热射病患者发生急性肾损伤的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

Risk factors analysis and prediction model construction of acute kidney injury in patients with heat stroke

张萍 杨莎 张琳 邓鹏 程涛 姚蓉
西部医学2025,Vol.37Issue(1) :75-79.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3511.2025.01.014

热射病患者发生急性肾损伤的危险因素分析及预测模型构建

Risk factors analysis and prediction model construction of acute kidney injury in patients with heat stroke

张萍 1杨莎 1张琳 1邓鹏 1程涛 1姚蓉1
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作者信息

  • 1. 四川大学华西医院急诊科急诊医学研究所,四川成都 610041;四川大学灾难医学中心,四川成都 610041
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摘要

目的 探讨热射病(HS)患者发生急性肾损伤(AKI)的临床特征及危险因素,并进一步构建风险预测模型.方法 选取四川大学华西医院、成都医学院第二附属医院、绵阳市中心医院等7家医院急诊科2022年7月1日-2022年9月30日收治的HS患者184例,根据住院期间是否发生AKI将患者分为AKI组和非AKI组,比较两组患者一般情况、就诊时症状、体征及实验室检查等指标,多因素Logistic回归分析筛选出HS患者发生AKI的独立危险因素,进一步建立AKI风险预测模型.结果 最终纳入HS患者160例,其中AKI组70例,非AKI组90例,AKI发生率为44%.与非AKI组相比,AKI组患者合并横纹肌溶解、DIC比例更高,死亡率更高.多因素Logistic回归分析显示,入院时患者心率、收缩压、肌红蛋白、血小板计数是HS患者发生AKI的独立危险因素,基于上述指标构建预测模型,受试者工作曲线下面积(AUROC)为0.848(95%CI:0.789~0.907,P<0.05),高于序贯器官衰竭评价(SOFA)评分(AUROC)为0.790(95%CI:0.718~0.861,P<0.05).结论 本组HS患者AKI发生率44%,就诊时心率、收缩压、肌红蛋白和血小板计数是HS患者中发生AKI的独立危险因素,基于上述指标构建的模型可用于评估HS患者AKI风险.

Abstract

Objective To explore the clinical characteristics and risk factors of acute kidney injury(AKI)in pa-tients with heat stroke(HS),and to further build a risk prediction model.Methods HS patients admitted to the emer-gency departments of 7 hospitals including West China Hospital of Sichuan University,the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College,and Mianyang Central Hospital from July 1,2022 to September 30,2022 were selected.Pa-tients with AKI were divided into AKI group and non-AKI group.The general conditions,symptoms,signs,and labora-tory tests of the two groups were compared.Multivariate logistic regression analysis screened out independent risk factors for AKI in HS patients,and further established AKI Risk Prediction Model.Results 160 HS patients were included,in-cluding 70 cases in the AKI group and 90 cases in the non-AKI group,and the incidence rate of AKI was 44%.Compared with the non-AKI group,the AKI group had a higher proportion of patients with rhabdomyolysis,DIC,and higher mor-tality.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that heart rate,systolic blood pressure,myoglobin,and platelet count at admission were independent risk factors for AKI in HS patients.A prediction model was constructed based on the above indicators,and the area under the receiver operating curve(AUROC)was 0.848(95%CI:0.789~0.907),higher than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score(0.79,95%CI:0.718~0.861,P<0.05).Conclu-sion The incidence of AKI in this group of HS patients was 44%.Heart rate,systolic blood pressure,myoglobin and platelet count at the time of consultation are independent risk factors for AKI in HS patients.The model constructed based on the above indicators can be used to assess the risk of AKI in HS patients.

关键词

热射病/急性肾损伤/危险因素/预测模型

Key words

Heat stroke/Acute kidney injury/Risk factors/Predictive models

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出版年

2025
西部医学
四川

西部医学

影响因子:1.352
ISSN:1672-3511
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