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数字技术会带来"技术奇点"吗?

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经济增长的本质是什么?人类是否能够实现经济的可持续增长?数字技术是否可能带来"技术奇点",从而创造一个不需要人类且产出无限增长的世界?本文首先从经济学的角度系统梳理关于数字技术对经济增长影响的研究,在此基础上从限制经济增长的物理因素角度对上述问题进行重新解读.本文认为:即便数字技术是人类历史的又一次革命,并且也可能创造一轮新的经济增长奇迹,但是,人类经济活动终究不能脱离有用物质有限、空间有限、物质不可无限分割以及地球承载能力有限的约束.而数字技术所带来的不平等以及其对生态环境的破坏,会进一步割裂GDP与人类福祉之间的关系.为此,从"技术奇点"转向"可持续的福祉增长"就成为一项迫在眉睫的关键任务.
Will Digital Technology Bring about a"Technological Singularity"?
What is the essence of economic growth?Can humanity achieve sustainable growth?Can digital technology bring about a"technological singularity"and create a world that does not require humans and has unlimited output growth?This article first systematically review the viewpoints from the economic literature on the impact of digital technology on economic growth,and then investigates the above-mentioned questions from the perspective of physical factors that restrict economic growth.This article argues that even though digital technology is another revolution in human history and may create a new economic growth miracle,human economic activities cannot ultimately escape the constraints of limited useful materials,limited space,the inability to infinitely divide materials,and the limited carrying capacity of the Earth.The inequality brought about by digital technology and its destruction of the ecological environment will further break the link between GDP and human well-being.Therefore,shifting from a"technological singularity"to"sustainable well-being growth"has become an urgent and critical task.

Economic growthEconomic developmentPhysical constraintsTechnological singularitySustainable well-being growth

王永进

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南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系

经济增长 经济发展 物理约束 技术奇点 可持续的福祉增长

国家社会科学基金重大项目

22&ZD074

2024

产业经济评论

产业经济评论

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.339
ISSN:2095-5073
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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