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中国已进入一元经济吗?

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中国经历长期高速增长,于 2004 年迎来了刘易斯转折点.随后近 20 年,中国继续保持高速增长和产业升级,劳动力从农业部门转向产出效率更高的非农部门,在此期间,政府持续推进高中阶段教育和高等教育进入普及阶段,使年轻劳动力的受教育水平提高,成为经济增长和产业升级的新动力,就业结构在走向正规化和白领化.本文认为,2020 年以来,中国已基本完成了经济转型,进入一元经济阶段.对这个判断,本文从劳动力市场变化做了多个角度的检验:劳动力实现了非农化配置及非农就业实现路径;地区间人力资本禀赋趋同;估算非农就业规模已达到峰值;劳动力市场走向正规化和白领化;中央政府对发展阶段的判断以及人才红利;农业部门劳动力的年龄结构等.都支持本文的判断,农业部门已没有可转移的剩余劳动力,中国已告别传统的二元经济,走向了一元经济.
Has China Entered a Unitary Economy?
After prolonged rapid growth,China reached the Lewis turning point in 2004.Over the next two decades,China maintained high growth and industrial upgrading,with labor shifting from agriculture to more productive non-agricultural sectors.During this period,the government promoted universal high school and higher education,enhancing the young workforce's educational level.This advancement has driven economic growth and industrial upgrading,leading to a more formal and white-collar employment structure.This paper argues that since 2020,China has completed its economic transition and entered a unitary economy stage.The paper examines labor market changes from several angles:the allocation and pathways of non-agricultural labor,regional human capital convergence,the peak scale of non-agricultural employment,the formalization and white-collarization of the labor market,the central government's development stage assessment and talent dividends,and the age structure of the agricultural labor force.These factors support the conclusion that China has transitioned to a unitary economy,with no surplus labor remaining in agriculture.

Dual EconomyLabor MarketLewis Turning Point

吴要武

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中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

二元经济 劳动力市场 刘易斯转折点

2024

产业经济评论

产业经济评论

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.339
ISSN:2095-5073
年,卷(期):2024.(6)