中国已进入一元经济吗?
Has China Entered a Unitary Economy?
吴要武1
作者信息
摘要
中国经历长期高速增长,于 2004 年迎来了刘易斯转折点.随后近 20 年,中国继续保持高速增长和产业升级,劳动力从农业部门转向产出效率更高的非农部门,在此期间,政府持续推进高中阶段教育和高等教育进入普及阶段,使年轻劳动力的受教育水平提高,成为经济增长和产业升级的新动力,就业结构在走向正规化和白领化.本文认为,2020 年以来,中国已基本完成了经济转型,进入一元经济阶段.对这个判断,本文从劳动力市场变化做了多个角度的检验:劳动力实现了非农化配置及非农就业实现路径;地区间人力资本禀赋趋同;估算非农就业规模已达到峰值;劳动力市场走向正规化和白领化;中央政府对发展阶段的判断以及人才红利;农业部门劳动力的年龄结构等.都支持本文的判断,农业部门已没有可转移的剩余劳动力,中国已告别传统的二元经济,走向了一元经济.
Abstract
After prolonged rapid growth,China reached the Lewis turning point in 2004.Over the next two decades,China maintained high growth and industrial upgrading,with labor shifting from agriculture to more productive non-agricultural sectors.During this period,the government promoted universal high school and higher education,enhancing the young workforce's educational level.This advancement has driven economic growth and industrial upgrading,leading to a more formal and white-collar employment structure.This paper argues that since 2020,China has completed its economic transition and entered a unitary economy stage.The paper examines labor market changes from several angles:the allocation and pathways of non-agricultural labor,regional human capital convergence,the peak scale of non-agricultural employment,the formalization and white-collarization of the labor market,the central government's development stage assessment and talent dividends,and the age structure of the agricultural labor force.These factors support the conclusion that China has transitioned to a unitary economy,with no surplus labor remaining in agriculture.
关键词
二元经济/劳动力市场/刘易斯转折点Key words
Dual Economy/Labor Market/Lewis Turning Point引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据