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多约束条件下光伏投资评价决策模型分析

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为了提高当前光伏投资评价效率及科学性,对当前光伏投资测算模型中存在争议的消纳率测算、财务边界条件界定等关键问题进行分析,并在此基础上对用户负荷曲线与光伏发电曲线进行拟合,导入影响多因子分析,从而构建出了线性概率(LPM)预测模型,提出了多约束条件下光伏投资评价决策LPM模型解决方案.案例实践分析证明了该模型能为实现光伏消纳率测算优化与修正、光伏投资评价科学决策提供一定的技术支撑.
Decision-Making Model for Photovoltaic Investment Evaluation under Multiple Constraints
In order to improve the efficiency and scientificity of the current photovoltaic investment evaluation,the key issues such as the measurement of the consumption rate and the definition of the financial boundary conditions,which are controversial in the current photovoltaic investment measurement model,are analysed,and on the basis of which,the user load curve and the photovoltaic power generation curve are fit,and the influence multifactorial analysis is imported,so as to construct a linear probabilistic(LPM)prediction model,and to put forward a photovoltaic under multiple constraints investment evaluation decision-making LPM model solution.And through the case practice analysis,it proves that the model can achieve the optimisation and correction of PV consumption rate measurement,and can provide certain technical support for scientific decision-making of PV investment evaluation.

photovoltaic projecteconomic index evaluationinvestment evaluationsocial benefit

王艺晓、蔡祥雨

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浙江华云电力工程设计咨询有限公司,浙江 杭州 310000

浙江省送变电工程有限公司,浙江 杭州 310000

光伏项目 经济指标评价 投资评价 社会效益

2024

现代工业经济和信息化

现代工业经济和信息化

影响因子:0.485
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.14(1)
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