首页|碳交易、绿色证书交易和电力市场的动态互动:基于系统动力学模型的研究

碳交易、绿色证书交易和电力市场的动态互动:基于系统动力学模型的研究

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在碳减排和可再生能源整合不断演变的背景下,采用系统动力学(SD)模型探讨碳交易(CT)、可交易绿色证书(TGC)交易和电力市场之间的相互关联动态.研究结果揭示了在各种耦合机制下碳价格、绿色证书价格和电价之间错综复杂的相互作用.例如,在三市场耦合机制下,碳交易价格稳定在150元/t左右,而绿色证书价格达到0.45元/(kW·h)的峰值进而影响电价.在模拟期间,电价在0.33~1.09元/(kW·h)之间波动.这些量化结果揭示了市场价格的细微波动以及每个市场内预期购买量和销售量的动态.从本研究中收集到的见解为政策制定者和市场利益相关者在应对碳减排战略、可再生能源整合和市场平衡的复杂性方面提供了有价值的启示.
Dynamic Interaction among Carbon Trading,Green Certificate Trading and Electricity Market:a Study Based on System Dynamics Model
In the context of the evolving landscape of carbon emissions reduction and renewable energy integration,this study employs System Dynamics(SD)modeling to explore the interconnected dynamics of carbon trading(CT),Tradable Green Certificate(TGC)trading,and electricity markets.Key findings reveal the intricate interplay among carbon prices,green certificate prices,and electricity prices under various coupling mechanisms.For instance,under the three-market coupling mechanism,carbon trading prices stabilize around 150 Yuan/ton,while green certificate prices reach a peak of 0.45 Yuan/KWH,impacting electricity prices,which fluctuate between 0.33 and 1.09 Yuan/KWH over the simulation period.These quantitative results shed light on the nuanced fluctuations in market prices and the dynamics of anticipated purchases and sales volumes within each market.The insights gleaned from this study offer valuable implications for policymakers and market stakeholders in navigating the complexities of carbon emission reduction strategies,renewable energy integration,and market equilibrium.

electricity marketcarbon tradetradable green certificatesystem dynamics model

李颖、白羽洁

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华能宁夏能源有限公司,宁夏 银川 750001

电力市场 碳交易 可交易绿色证书 系统动力学模型

2024

现代工业经济和信息化

现代工业经济和信息化

影响因子:0.485
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.14(9)