Analysis of causes of bleeding after endoscopic duodenal papillary adenoma resection and establishment of prediction model
Objective The causes of bleeding after endoscopic duodenal papilloma resection were analyzed and discussed,and the prediction model of nomogram was established.Methods A total of 233 patients who underwent endoscopic duodenal papilloma resection in our hospital from January 2018 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,and they were divided into bleeding group(n=31 cases)and non-bleeding group(n=202 cases)according to whether postoperative bleeding occurred.The clinical data of the two groups were compared,the independent risk factors for postoperative bleeding were analyzed by multi-factor logistic regression,the risk nomogram prediction model was constructed,and the Bootstrap method was used for 1000 repeated samples to carry out internal verification.Results Anticoagulant drugs(OR=9.063,95％CI:2.132-38.525),lesion diameter ≥2 cm(OR=2.802,95％CI:1.073-7.321),intraoperative fragment resection(OR=27.653,95％CI:3.055～619.174)and pancreatic complications(OR=6.859,95％CI:1.930～24.377)were independent risk factors for postoperative bleeding after endoscopic duodenal papilloma resection(P＜0.05).A risk prediction nomogram model was constructed according to the Logistic regression analysis results.The samples were repeatedly sampled 1000 times through Bootstrap method for internal verification.The area under the ROC curve was 0.850,and the 95％CI was 0.780-0.913,indicating good differentiation ability of the model.Calibration curve analysis indicated that the prediction probability of postoperative bleeding predicted by the nomogram prediction model was in good agreement with the actual probability of postoperative bleeding,and Hosmer-Lemeshow showed good goodness of fit(x2=3.304 9,P=0.913 8).Conclusion Taking anticoagulant drugs,lesion diameter ≥2 cm,intraoperative segmentary resection,and postoperative combination of pancreas were independent risk factors for bleeding after endoscopic duodenal papilloma resection.A nomogram prediction model was established to help clinical assessment of postoperative bleeding risk in patients and improve decision-making basis for early prevention.
duodenal papilla adenomaendoscopypostoperative bleedingrisk factorsprediction model
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