Research on Population Prediction of Hainan Province Based on Bayesian Structure Time Series Model
This paper gains insight into the current demographic situation of Hainan Province and predicts the total resident population by analyzing the population data from 2003 to 2022.The data is from Statistical Yearbook of Hainan Province,and this paper uses line chart and population pyramid map to describe the current demographic situation of Hainan Province from 2003 to 2022,and a Bayesian Structural Time Series model is applied to predict the total resident population for the next three years.After analysis and prediction,the results show that the Bayesian Structural Time Series model has a root mean square error of 2.914,a mean absolute percentage error of 0.002 which is less than 10,and a coefficient of determination of 0.986.The total resident population of Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025 is 10 423 400,10 545 600,and 10 667 600,respectively.It shows that the Bayesian Structural Time Series model is effective in predicting the resident population of Hainan Province,and the number of resident population in Hainan Province will continue to rise slowly.
Hainan Provinceannual permanent populationpredictionBayesian Structure Time Series model
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
