Prediction of the Number of Chinese General Aviation Operating Enterprises Based on ARIAM and GM(1,1)Models
As one of the two wings of Chinese civil aviation,general aviation is developing rapidly.In order to fully grasp the development law of general aviation operation enterprises,this paper uses SPSS26 and Python 3.9 to establish ARIMA and GM(1,1)models based on the data from 2010 to 2022,and compares the number and scale of Chinese general aviation operating enterprises,and selects the model with better fitting for short-term prediction analysis.The results show that the fit between the predicted value and the actual value of the ARIMA(0,2,0)model and the GM(1,1)model both meet the prediction of future short-term data,but the post-posterior difference ratio of the GM(1,1)model is 0.001,and the average relative error of the model is 1.868%,which not only has high accuracy,but also has good model fitting effect and is better in prediction.The prediction results can provide corresponding data support for the general aviation development planning strategy.
general aviationnumber of operating enterprisesARIMAGM(1,1)
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
