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基于马尔可夫链的草原沙漠化模拟模型

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文章对内蒙古鄂托克旗局部地区的草原沙漠化可能性进行了仿真分析。针对草原生态及环境,借助NetLogo仿真平台建立了四大模型以模拟草原沙漠化的进程,分别是基于马尔可夫链的天气预测模型、草的生长模型、羊和狼的生命模型和沙漠的扩张模型。结果表明该地区的生态承载力很脆弱,建议有关政府部门约束牧民,禁止在该区域放牧,及早治理,同时在已经沙漠化的区域植树造林以延缓区域沙漠化的进程。
Grassland Desertification Simulation Model Based on Markov Chain
This paper simulates and analyzes the possibility of grassland desertification in local areas of Etuoke Banner,Inner Mongolia.Aiming at the grassland ecology and environment,four models are established by using the NetLogo simulation platform to simulate the progress of grassland desertification.These models include the weather prediction model based on Markov Chain,the grass growth model,the life model of sheep and wolves,and the model for desert expansion.The results indicate the region's ecological carrying capacity is extremely fragile.It is recommended that relevant government authorities restrict herding activities and implement grazing bans in the area.Early measures should be taken for restoration,while afforestation efforts should be carried out in areas that have already undergone desertification to mitigate the advancement of regional desertification.

grassland desertificationclimateovergrazingMarkov ChainNetLogo

姜屿涵

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武汉大学 测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079

草原沙漠化 气候 过度放牧 马尔可夫链 NetLogo

2024

现代信息科技
广东省电子学会

现代信息科技

ISSN:2096-4706
年,卷(期):2024.8(14)