首页|T2DM患者他汀类药物治疗后发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型的构建

T2DM患者他汀类药物治疗后发生主要不良心血管事件预测模型的构建

Construction of prediction model for major adverse cardiovascular event in T2DM patients after statin treatment

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目的 构建 2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者他汀类药物治疗后发生主要不良心血管事件(MACE)的预测模型.方法 选取2018年1月至2021年12月在丽水市第二人民医院接受他汀类药物治疗的387例T2DM患者为研究对象,按照随访期间是否发生MACE分为MACE组43例与无MACE组344例,比较两组患者临床资料,采用Cox比例风险回归模型分析发生MACE的影响因素,构建并验证预测模型的列线图.结果 MACE组年龄以及C反应蛋白、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)水平均明显高于无MACE组,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05).C反应蛋白≥2.57 mg/L、总胆固醇≥3.80 mmol/L、甘油三酯≥1.10 mmol/L、LDL-C≥1.98 mmol/L是T2DM患者他汀类药物治疗后发生MACE的独立危险因素(均P<0.05).基于上述4个独立危险因素构建的T2DM患者他汀类药物治疗后发生MACE预测模型预测 1、3、5年MACE发生的AUC分别为0.792、0.850、0.781,且Hosmer-Lemeshow检验提示预测模型的区分度及校准度均较好(均P>0.05).结论 基于C反应蛋白、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、LDL-C构建的T2DM患者他汀类药物治疗后发生MACE预测模型具有一定的预测效能.
Objective To construct a model for predicting major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE)in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)after statin treatment.Methods Three hundred and eighty-seven T2DM patients treated with statins in Lishui Second People's Hospital from January 2018 to December 2021 were included.According to whether MACE occurred during the follow-up period,the patients were divided into MACE group(n=43)and no MACE group(n=344).Clinical data were compared between the two groups of patients.Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of MACE,and the nomogram of the prediction model was constructed and verified.Results The age,C-reactive protein,total cholesterol,triglycerides,and low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)were significantly higher in the MACE group than in the no MACE group(all P<0.05).C-reactive protein≥2.57 mg/L,total cholesterol≥3.80 mmol/L,triglyceride≥1.10 mmol/L,LDL-C≥1.98 mmol/L were independent risk factors of MACE in T2DM patients after statin treatment(all P<0.05).The AUCs of the model derived from above four risk factors for prediction of 1-year,3-year,and 5-year MACE were 0.792,0.850 and 0.781,respectively.Hosmer Lemeshow test showed that the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model were relatively good(all P>0.05).Conclusion The model constructed based on C-reactive protein,total cholesterol,triglyceride and LDL-C has certain predictive power for MACE in T2DM patients after statin treatment.

Type 2 diabetes mellitusStatinsMajor adverse cardiac eventPrediction model

周泽平、柳景芬、雷丽倩

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323000 丽水市第二人民医院老年科

2型糖尿病 他汀类药物 主要不良心血管事件 预测模型

2024

心电与循环
浙江省医学会

心电与循环

影响因子:0.269
ISSN:2095-3933
年,卷(期):2024.43(2)
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